Quote (thundercock @ 2 Nov 2020 05:46)
No one should concede on election night because not all the votes will be in. I think we'll have a pretty good idea who won on Tuesday night but several races won't be called (threshold is like 99.5% probability)
There's only three realistic outcomes: Florida is called early for Biden, which means that Trump is done, even if we wont get the official result for some time. Or Trump wins Florida, in which case he's very likely to also carry NC and GA, and the election will come down to AZ and the Midwest, meaning that it will take several days until we know who won. Or Florida is too close to call on election night, which also implies a high probability for Trump to lose the election in the end, even if he ultimately hangs on to FL.
In Florida:
Biden wins - game over
Margin within 0.5% on election night - things look grim for Trump
Trump wins by 1% or higher - game on, the election probably becomes a 50:50 affair.
This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Nov 2 2020 05:03am