Quote (Black XistenZ @ Oct 30 2018 04:40pm)
Im not so sure about that calculus. The democratic base is already energized as fuck, they already are in a territory where marginal returns on further mobilization are miniscule. The republican base is lagging behind in enthusiasm until now - as usual in midterms! - so that additional mobilization on their side will yield higher marginal returns. The big question are moderate swing-voters - what's their mobilization, how are they leaning this time around, how will this affect them?
Since early 2016, everyone has been saying that it's a strategic mistake by Trump to only play to his base and to never cater to moderates - but this strategy has won him the White House and worked out fine so far. I do indeed think that it's not gonna work this time around, I do think that this birthright EO will be a net negative, but I wouldnt bet a ton on it, and I dont think the downside will be as huge as you seem to think either.
I think Republicans seem to forget that he barely won in their couple years of meme glory
will he benefit from a low bar? yes but he keeps handing democrats credibility to their claims that he is terrible when he doesn't have to
let them run on "trump bad" but no he has to hand them stuff like this which is actually a really big deal and gives them something substantive to talk about and fight against
He's at a real risk of being neutered with the house, governor races, and possibly the senate
no room for error here and he hands the dems something as big as this on the last lap
could I be wrong? yeah I'm wrong all the time but I don't think I'm wrong about how big of self imposed fumble this one is