Quote (Black XistenZ @ Aug 9 2022 01:06pm)
Big disagree there. The competition WAS weak. If I may ask: which of the 2016 GOP primary candidates did you consider "strong" and which of them do you think had at least as much of a chance of beating Clinton as Trump had (25-30%)?
They will not nominate the most electable candidate because of his electability - if they end up nominating an electable standard bearer (not Trump...), the electability will be a coincidence of other factors.
Beating Trump head-on in a primary in 2024 is obviously only gonna happen if Trump is weak - and I think he will be! His energy level and sharpness have declined drastically compared with 2016. His ideas and shtick are no longer fresh, they're stale and same old. I don't think that more than ~30% of the GOP primary voters are obsessed with 2020, with litigating the past. Imho, a majority would want to move on, and if Trump continues to obsess over the events from (then) 3-4 years ago, that's a minus point for him. Additionally, I do believe that establishment dislike of Trump and concern over his electability will prompt the non-trumpy factions of the GOP to quickly coalesce behind the strongest non-Trump candidate, even if his tone and policies happen to be quite trumpy (e.g. DeSantis).
Of course my entire reasoning hinges on the assumption that a majority of GOP voters supported Trump because of his policies and fighting spirit, rather than because they were (or still are) cultists. But okay, maybe I'm out of touch and placing too much weight on my own motivations in this regard. Time will tell.
I think Jeb, Rubio, and Kasich could have beaten Clinton given her unpopularity. Heck, Santorum might have been able to win given that he was pushing the rust-belt white trash working class nonsense for a solid decade but he's also too pro-life for the country.
Polling suggested that some of these candidates would have faggot stomped Hillary:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_rubio_vs_clinton-3767.htmlhttps://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_kasich_vs_clinton-5162.htmlhttps://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_bush_vs_clinton-3827.html (better than Trump!)
Anyway, who do you think can beat Trump, head to head, in the primary? Who do you think can beat Trump in a crowded field? We need names!
I just don't understand why you think Trump is weak when he is polling so well right now. He's immensely popular with GOP primary voters and he's having rally after rally. What is going to change between now and the primary that is going to weaken him enough to lose?