Quote (Black XistenZ @ 21 Sep 2018 21:46)

As I stated in my previous post, the partisan margin in Texas at max turnout in a neutral national environment is probably around 12-15% in favor of the GOP.

Probably moderates who are leaning slightly to the left.


Yes, thats a good point. Beto certainly has the edge when it comes to authenticity.

Quote (EndlessSky @ Sep 22 2018 11:09am)

You know youre desperate when your hope for a victory is Beto in Texas

Quote (ThatAlex @ 23 Sep 2018 07:31)

That's my point. Beto is running a good campaign that is appealing to many Texans and not just his Democratic base. If the max turnout in a neutral national environment is around 12-15% like you say, and Beto is currently down 4-5 points in the polls right now (according to RCP), he's at a campaigning advantage of +8-11% points right now vs Cruz.

Quote (Black XistenZ @ 23 Sep 2018 09:13)

The key part you missed in bold: the national environment isnt neutral atm, its at about D+(8-9)%.
So Beto is actually beating the national trend by just 3ish percentage points. And this might just as well be due to the unpopularity of his opponent, not his own strength.

I admit that Beto might have persuaded some centrist voters who were on the fence to finally switch sides and join the democrats, but I dont think the number of such cases is as meaningful as you suggest. Well, time will tell.

Quote (ThatAlex @ 23 Sep 2018 16:30)

If Republicans are +12-15 points in Texas with max turnout in a neutral national environment, but that environment is D+8-9% right now, that means Texas is effectively only +4-6% Republican right now, and I think that is just too low.

Consider that the Governor's race is R+19 points right now, and that is also with a one-term Republican incumbent. Lots of other factors at play there, but it's a decent litmus test of the generic party preferences of the state. Texas is probably effectively R+8-10 points right now instead of its usual +12-15.

Quote

Lindsey Graham: Appoint special counsel to investigate ‘bureaucratic coup’ against Trump

Sen. Lindsey O. Graham (R-S.C.) said Sunday he believes “a bureaucratic coup” led by enemies of President Trump is taking place at the Justice Department, and the senator asked that a new special counsel be appointed to investigate.

Graham, a veteran member of the Senate Judiciary Committee, made the comments on “Fox News Sunday” in response to questions about a report that Deputy Attorney General Rod J. Rosenstein suggested secretly recording Trump and possibly using the 25th Amendment to remove the president from office.

Graham said he didn’t favor firing Rosenstein, who has denied the report and said he never advocated for removal of the president. “He shouldn’t fire Rosenstein unless you believe Rosenstein’s lying,” Graham said.

Instead, the South Carolina senator pointed his finger at others in the department who he said have “tried to destroy this president.” He specifically referred to former FBI officials Andrew McCabe, Lisa Page and Peter Strzok.

McCabe, a former FBI deputy director, was fired after being accused of making an unauthorized disclosure to the news media. Strzok, who helped lead the FBI inquiry into Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election, lost his job after officials discovered he had been exchanging anti-Trump text messages in 2016 with Page, a lawyer, who has also left the department.

“Before the election, the people in question tried to taint the election, tip it to Clinton’s favor; after the election, they’re trying to undermine the president,” Graham said. He added that he did not know “what Rosenstein did, but I know what McCabe or Page and Strzok did. They tried to destroy this president. If Rosenstein’s involved, he should be fired. If he’s not involved, leave him alone.’’

At the time of his firing, McCabe said the attacks against him were “part of this administration’s ongoing war on the FBI” that “only highlights the importance of the special counsel’s work” investigating whether the Trump campaign conspired with Russia.

Graham told Fox News host Chris Wallace on Sunday that a new special counsel is required to investigate what happened at the FBI, and he called on Rosenstein to appoint one immediately.

“Rosenstein is doing the country a disservice by not appointing a special counsel” to look into FBI actions regarding Trump and Russia, he said.

Democrats have resisted the call for another special counsel to be appointed and ridiculed claims by Trump and his allies that the FBI is tainted by bias.

“The President has claimed a vast conspiracy in his own government against his campaign and Administration,” Sen. Richard J. Durbin (D-Ill.) said over the summer when a Justice Department inspector general’s report was released finding that former FBI director James B. Comey and others failed to follow rules. Durbin noted that “this report found no evidence that political bias affected the FBI’s investigations.” He and other Democrats have repeatedly said complaints of bias are misplaced and seem to be an effort to undermine the inquiry into the Trump campaign and Russia led by special counsel Robert S. Mueller III.

Quote (Beowulf @ Sep 23 2018 03:02pm)

[URL=https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/lindsey-graham-theres-a-bureaucratic-coup-against-trump/2018/09/23/e21e8e70-bf4c-11e8-90c9-23f963eea204_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.e96e2e3fe8ca]https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/lindsey-graham-theres-a-bureaucratic-coup-against-trump/2018/09/23/e21e8e70-bf4c-11e8-90c9-23f963eea204_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.e96e2e3fe8ca[/URL]

Quote (Beowulf @ 23 Sep 2018 21:02)

Quote (Black XistenZ @ Sep 23 2018 12:15pm)

Wasnt Graham one of the most vocal Trump critics just 18 months ago? Nowadays, he's so far up Trump's rectum that whoever pulled him out would be crowned King of England.