Quote (Goomshill @ Sep 21 2018 06:54pm)

Nobody likes Cruz. Democrats don't like Cruz, Republicans don't like Cruz, Texas don't like Cruz, Cruz's own supporters don't like Cruz, Cruz probably hates himself.
But he goes out there and dismantles people and has run pretty safe elections thus far, his unpopularity has kept him stymied on a national stage.

Yet whatever vulnerability Cruz has in being a satanic baby-eating reptilian, it seems like democrats are determined to throw away their chances to unseat him. I'm only halfway through the debate and its clearly a shitshow, but Beto seems to be echoing his campaign message of pulling left and it just mystifies me why instead of going blue dog in the heart of red country, he's preaching like a california liberal activist. Why?

Quote (Goomshill @ 21 Sep 2018 20:37)

I'm catching up on the Beto/Cruz debate since I couldn't watch it live and i'm not sure I care enough to finish it
but I'm only 14 minutes in and I have to wonder how the crap anyone thinks Beto could actually win this.
Cruz gets up on stage and smashes Beto's head in with deft footwork and preplanned points of attack, really brutal slaps like you'd expect from him going low
but then Beto gets up on stage and starts preaching like he's a social justice crusader.

its texas

how is he supposed to even try to win in texas when he's pulling a hard left and soapboxing about 'unarmed african american men' while Cruz switches between claiming the middle ground (stressing legal immigration) and eviscerating him (juxtaposing 'he called the police the new jim crow' with 'heres the widow of a police officer shot in the head'). Now I gather sure, Dallas/Houston/Austin are at least skewed to have more pussy hat types who would be receptive to this, but can you really win an election in texas of all places by abandoning the center and appealing to urban turnout of the far-left?

Quote (Black XistenZ @ Sep 21 2018 07:58pm)

I also just watched the first 16 or so minutes of this - yes, Cruz is a very hateable slime ball, but wtf is this Beto guy?! He has no real arguments whatsoever besides the usual standard talking points of the left. On the issues, he appears to be a real lightweight.

And he's constantly putting up smoke and mirrors, deflecting from his lack of substance with rambling anecdotes that are getting tiring after a while and which are clearly what his debate trainers have taught him. He's trying way too hard to come across as folksy and relatable if you ask me. "When I was traveling through Bumfuck, TX, my uncle's counsin's plumber taught me a valuable lesson about...."

Quote (ThatAlex @ 22 Sep 2018 03:58)

Iunno. His strategy is good enough to only be down by 4.5 points based on RCP polling to an incumbent in a deep red state. He was up 2 points in the last poll. He's doing something right.

For comparison, Greg Abbott, another 1 term Texas incumbent, is up 19 points on his opponent. Cruz beat his last opponent by 16.1 points.

I think Cruz ultimately wins this race. But not because O'Rourke is running a bad campaign.

Quote (Goomshill @ Sep 21 2018 07:05pm)

I just got to the 22 minute mark and he's straight up stumbling over words and phrasing things awkwardly;
"Texas is ready for a senator who will protect the lives within our lives". "Fewer boyfriends killed by their girlfriends" "After the parkland shooting massacre there in that school" "A handgun won't kill you, whereas a round from a gun designed for killing people..." (?)
All spewed out very high velocity faster than the audience could track with

I can understand the guy being outclassed by a literal harvard debate captain, but he seemed poorly rehearsed even in a vacuum

Quote (Beowulf @ 22 Sep 2018 04:11)

I mean we see it often

Beto's positions and style does great in left wing echo chambers

on the debate stage it gets tougher for them with the personalities they've had succeed so far

there is an aggression thing there too. Conservative dudes like Trump and Cruz just have an advantage over the typical less aggressive left male types on stage

Quote (Goomshill @ Sep 21 2018 06:37pm)

I'm catching up on the Beto/Cruz debate since I couldn't watch it live and i'm not sure I care enough to finish it
but I'm only 14 minutes in and I have to wonder how the crap anyone thinks Beto could actually win this.
Cruz gets up on stage and smashes Beto's head in with deft footwork and preplanned points of attack, really brutal slaps like you'd expect from him going low
but then Beto gets up on stage and starts preaching like he's a social justice crusader.

its texas

how is he supposed to even try to win in texas when he's pulling a hard left and soapboxing about 'unarmed african american men' while Cruz switches between claiming the middle ground (stressing legal immigration) and eviscerating him (juxtaposing 'he called the police the new jim crow' with 'heres the widow of a police officer shot in the head'). Now I gather sure, Dallas/Houston/Austin are at least skewed to have more pussy hat types who would be receptive to this, but can you really win an election in texas of all places by abandoning the center and appealing to urban turnout of the far-left?

Quote (Black XistenZ @ Sep 21 2018 08:08pm)

I think Beto is running a great campaign - but not a winning one. By galvanizing the enthusiasm of the base and by unapologetically owning up to progressive stances in Texas, he has solidified the Democratic coalition to the point where they appear to be within striking distance against a particularly unpopular incumbent in year that might turn into a wave election in favor of the Democrats.

In a neutral political environment, Cruz would be up by 12-15%, which is roughly the true partisan margin in Texas. That Texas Republicans typically win elections by even bigger margins is due to the notoriously low turnout of the Democratic constituencies in Texas - and this is where Beto is successful, in maximizing the turnout of his coalition - but that doesnt change the fact that in Texas, the Republican coalition still has a healthy structural majority over the Democratic coalition. And Beto's campaign sure as hell is doing nothing to win over Republicans or conservative-leaning independents.

Quote (Black XistenZ @ 21 Sep 2018 21:08)

I think Beto is running a great campaign - but not a winning one. By galvanizing the enthusiasm of the base and by unapologetically owning up to progressive stances in Texas, he has solidified the Democratic coalition to the point where they appear to be within striking distance against a particularly unpopular incumbent in year that might turn into a wave election in favor of the Democrats.

In a neutral political environment, Cruz would be up by 12-15%, which is roughly the true partisan margin in Texas. That Texas Republicans typically win elections by even bigger margins is due to the notoriously low turnout of the Democratic constituencies in Texas - and this is where Beto is successful, in maximizing the turnout of his coalition - but that doesnt change the fact that in Texas, the Republican coalition still has a healthy structural majority over the Democratic coalition. And Beto's campaign sure as hell is doing nothing to win over Republicans or conservative-leaning independents.

Quote (Black XistenZ @ 21 Sep 2018 21:17)

Yep. Beto is the type of candidate who's beloved by the New York and Washington media, and who's resonating with people who are leaning to the left to begin with. But he's not the kind of guy flip a lot of conservative voters. In a state like Florida or North Carolina, where both parties have almost equally large bases, he'd be a winning candidate. But in Texas, and I guess that's my point, his campaign is set to look good, but not running a winning strategy. He and his campaign are looking as good as possible - in defeat.