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Aug 13 2024 01:17pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Aug 13 2024 01:22pm)
Inflation in the US stood at 7.5% in January 2022, but at only 5.1% in the Eurozone. I'm choosing that month because it's the last month before the war in Ukraine, which threw global energy markets into turmoil and had a disproportionate effect on Europe.

Funnily enough, inflation in the US is also higher right now than in Europe. And that's with the ECB already having begun cutting interest rates while the FED still kept rates high.


inflation is higher in the US because the appetite for greed is higher. if McDonalds can produce a large fry for 15 cents in the US, then they forecast that they would receive the most number of orders by pricing a large fry at $3, they will make the large fry $4 and offer incentives through apps to collect data on consumers for discounts and promotions that essentially arrive back to that $3 profit margin

another example is Walmart could double the wages for all its workers and still make millions in profits. they don't because they don't want to, not because they can't

these corporate actions are as a result of late stage capitalism which is totally independent of Rs or Ds having control

This post was edited by MildSambal on Aug 13 2024 01:19pm
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Aug 13 2024 01:25pm
Quote (MildSambal @ 13 Aug 2024 21:17)
inflation is higher in the US because the appetite for greed is higher. if McDonalds can produce a large fry for 15 cents in the US, then they forecast that they would receive the most number of orders by pricing a large fry at $3, they will make the large fry $4 and offer incentives through apps to collect data on consumers for discounts and promotions that essentially arrive back to that $3 profit margin

another example is Walmart could double the wages for all its workers and still make millions in profits. they don't because they don't want to, not because they can't

these corporate actions are as a result of late stage capitalism which is totally independent of Rs or Ds having control


You realize that a ton of the food in Europe is also sold by US food giants, don't you? So what is the argument then? That European corporations are less greedy than their American counterparts out of the goodness of their heart, and thus ruin the prices for US companies operating in Europe?
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Aug 13 2024 01:44pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Aug 13 2024 02:25pm)
You realize that a ton of the food in Europe is also sold by US food giants, don't you? So what is the argument then? That European corporations are less greedy than their American counterparts out of the goodness of their heart, and thus ruin the prices for US companies operating in Europe?


there isn't much difference between the US and Euro rates of inflation, there is a difference of definition/measuring

key point - citizens of the EU can't rack up tons of credit card debt then just declare bankruptcy to wipe it all away

another key point - generally accepted accounting principles in the US allow several inventory accounting methods, while Europe is restricted from using a last in first out inventory cost method. the IFRS which is used in most EU countries forbids this inventory valuation method

the international monetary fund expects the US economy to grow about 2 percent more than Europe this year

the FED is more hesitant to cut rates than the ECB because the strength of the US economy makes it more likely that high inflation will make a sustained comeback

This post was edited by MildSambal on Aug 13 2024 01:45pm
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Aug 13 2024 01:58pm
Quote (MildSambal @ 13 Aug 2024 21:44)
there isn't much difference between the US and Euro rates of inflation, there is a difference of definition/measuring

key point - citizens of the EU can't rack up tons of credit card debt then just declare bankruptcy to wipe it all away

another key point - generally accepted accounting principles in the US allow several inventory accounting methods, while Europe is restricted from using a last in first out inventory cost method. the IFRS which is used in most EU countries forbids this inventory valuation method

the international monetary fund expects the US economy to grow about 2 percent more than Europe this year

the FED is more hesitant to cut rates than the ECB because the strength of the US economy makes it more likely that high inflation will make a sustained comeback


Alright, so how many different excuses/spins do we have now?

- corporate greed is worse in US than EU?
- more credit card debt culture in the US?!
- no wait, it's differences in accounting/measuring the statistics!
- no wait, the US economy is doing so hot right now that it's teetering on the brink of overheating!! (forget the recent, anemic job reports...)
- whatever, it's a good thing because the US economy will outgrow Europe anyway!!1

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Aug 13 2024 01:59pm
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Aug 13 2024 02:12pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Aug 13 2024 02:58pm)
Alright, so how many different excuses/spins do we have now?

- corporate greed is worse in US than EU?
- more credit card debt culture in the US?!
- no wait, it's differences in accounting/measuring the statistics!
- no wait, the US economy is doing so hot right now that it's teetering on the brink of overheating!! (forget the recent, anemic job reports...)
- whatever, it's a good thing because the US economy will outgrow Europe anyway!!1


-go read fear and greed indexes since you seem oblivious to them

-you think consumer bankruptcy has no impact on costs? debt doesn't just vanish at the snap of a finger. it gets passed onto borrowers (including businesses) to recuperate losses

-there are established differences in accounting and economic parameters between the US and EU, if you can't handle nuance and complexities then don't give ignorant opinions by simplifying Rs good Ds bad. especially since you seem like someone who hasn't even lived in the US so how the hell would you know?

-the US has been above the EU GDP per capita *checks notes* always? shocker that it would go on this year



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Aug 13 2024 02:50pm
Quote (MildSambal @ 13 Aug 2024 22:12)
-go read fear and greed indexes since you seem oblivious to them

You mean this one?
https://edition.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed
Quote
The Fear & Greed Index is a compilation of seven different indicators that measure some aspect of stock market behavior. They are market momentum, stock price strength, stock price breadth, put and call options, junk bond demand, market volatility, and safe haven demand. The index tracks how much these individual indicators deviate from their averages compared to how much they normally diverge.

Those are metrics measuring the drivers of the stock market, not metrics of differences in the levels of corporate greed between different markets.



Quote
-you think consumer bankruptcy has no impact on costs? debt doesn't just vanish at the snap of a finger. it gets passed onto borrowers (including businesses) to recuperate losses

https://www.debt.org/bankruptcy/statistics/

Non-business bankruptcies were actually historically low in 2021 and 2022, when the big surge of inflation took place. This explanation seems plausible in theory, but is soundly rejected by empirical evidence.


Quote
-there are established differences in accounting and economic parameters between the US and EU, if you can't handle nuance and complexities then don't give ignorant opinions by simplifying Rs good Ds bad.

Those differences can maybe explain the 0.3% difference in inflation rates between the US and EU from June 24, but it surely can't explain the 2.4% difference from January 22.
And just for the record: even if inflation rates were identical in June 24, that would still be an awful performance for the US, considering the context, i.e. how much harder Europe was hit by the energy price shock from the Ukraine war.


Quote
-the US has been above the EU GDP per capita *checks notes* always? shocker that it would go on this year

What the hell does GDP/capita have to do with either inflation or percentage-based growth of absolute GDP? For example, from 2006 through 2008, the EU had higher GDP growth rates than the US although the US had the higher GDP/capita. During the 2010s, Germany has consistently had higher GDP/capita and lower inflation rates than the eurozone at large.




None of the things you say make sense once one applies even just a modicum of scrutiny.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Aug 13 2024 02:56pm
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Aug 13 2024 03:22pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Aug 13 2024 03:50pm)
You mean this one?
https://edition.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed

Those are metrics measuring the drivers of the stock market, not metrics of differences in the levels of corporate greed between different markets.




https://www.debt.org/bankruptcy/statistics/
https://www.debt.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/bankruptcy-filings-2001-2022-1.jpg
Non-business bankruptcies were actually historically low in 2021 and 2022, when the big surge of inflation took place. This explanation seems plausible in theory, but is soundly rejected by empirical evidence.



Those differences can maybe explain the 0.3% difference in inflation rates between the US and EU from June 24, but it surely can't explain the 2.4% difference from January 22.
And just for the record: even if inflation rates were identical in June 24, that would still be an awful performance for the US, considering the context, i.e. how much harder Europe was hit by the energy price shock from the Ukraine war.



What the hell does GDP/capita have to do with either inflation or percentage-based growth of absolute GDP? For example, from 2006 through 2008, the EU had higher GDP growth rates than the US although the US had the higher GDP/capita. During the 2010s, Germany has consistently had higher GDP/capita and lower inflation rates than the eurozone at large.




None of the things you say make sense once one applies even just a modicum of scrutiny.


Corporate profits accounted for 53% of inflation in the 2nd and 3rd quarters of 2023 compared to 11% in the 40 years before the COVID-19 pandemic

In 2023 JP Morgan Chase's profit increased 65% from its profit margin through 2015-2019 and Berkshire Hathaway's profit increased 202%

EU regulations help keep businesses in check, without those regulations they would be just as greedy as their counterparts operating in USA, China, and Russia

You can't separate the stock market from business practices in the US, CEO's answer to shareholders and profit maximization means favoring short-term gains at the cost of long-term sustainability

"What the hell does GDP/capita have to do with either inflation or percentage-based growth of absolute GDP? For example, from 2006 through 2008, the EU had higher GDP growth rates than the US although the US had the higher GDP/capita. During the 2010s, Germany has consistently had higher GDP/capita and lower inflation rates than the eurozone at large."

Real GDP per capita reflects changes in the actual quantity of goods and services available to the average person taking inflation into account

Since inflation in the US is high, that erodes the purchasing power of citizens money. Since the FED is looking to cut rates we can deduce they expect growth near-term

what specifically about the Biden administration is attributed to "awful performance" regarding inflation rates in the US?

This post was edited by MildSambal on Aug 13 2024 03:24pm
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Aug 13 2024 04:04pm
Quote (MildSambal @ 13 Aug 2024 23:22)
Corporate profits accounted for 53% of inflation in the 2nd and 3rd quarters of 2023 compared to 11% in the 40 years before the COVID-19 pandemic

Sounds like a nitpicked statistic. What's the corresponding number for 2021, for 2022 or for Q1/23? Those were the quarters when the bulk of inflation took place, the price shock was already abating by mid-23.

Quote
In 2023 JP Morgan Chase's profit increased 65% from its profit margin through 2015-2019 and Berkshire Hathaway's profit increased 202%

Those are financial investors first and foremost, their performance is tied to their specific investments. The stock market was going absolutely bonkers in recent years, see also the market correction last week. The stock market is inflated (ha!), which also skews the profitability of banks or investment funds.

Look, I'm not denying that corporate greed and general profiteering played a role in exacerbating the inflation, it's just that 1.) bank profits aren't an accurate indicator for this and 2.) this notion that almost all the inflation was due to corporate greed doesn't pass the smell test at a time of unprecedented money printing and a global energy price shock.

Quote
EU regulations help keep businesses in check, without those regulations they would be just as greedy as their counterparts operating in USA, China, and Russia

There are no regulations in the EU which prevent food and gas companies from jacking up prices as they see fit. EU regulations prevent abusive workplace conditions or slacking off on product quality, but they don't prevent price hikes.

Quote
You can't separate the stock market from business practices in the US, CEO's answer to shareholders and profit maximization means favoring short-term gains at the cost of long-term sustainability

Platitudes. Also, CEO's in Europe answer to shareholders and are bound to profit maximization just as much as their American peers.


Quote
Real GDP per capita reflects changes in the actual quantity of goods and services available to the average person taking inflation into account

Now you're talking about real GDP (per capita), which makes all the difference in the world.



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Aug 13 2024 05:08pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Aug 13 2024 05:04pm)
Sounds like a nitpicked statistic. What's the corresponding number for 2021, for 2022 or for Q1/23? Those were the quarters when the bulk of inflation took place, the price shock was already abating by mid-23.


Those are financial investors first and foremost, their performance is tied to their specific investments. The stock market was going absolutely bonkers in recent years, see also the market correction last week. The stock market is inflated (ha!), which also skews the profitability of banks or investment funds.

Look, I'm not denying that corporate greed and general profiteering played a role in exacerbating the inflation, it's just that 1.) bank profits aren't an accurate indicator for this and 2.) this notion that almost all the inflation was due to corporate greed doesn't pass the smell test at a time of unprecedented money printing and a global energy price shock.


There are no regulations in the EU which prevent food and gas companies from jacking up prices as they see fit. EU regulations prevent abusive workplace conditions or slacking off on product quality, but they don't prevent price hikes.


Platitudes. Also, CEO's in Europe answer to shareholders and are bound to profit maximization just as much as their American peers.



Now you're talking about real GDP (per capita), which makes all the difference in the world.


What policies over the last 4 years are attributed to the awful economic performance in the US?
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Aug 13 2024 06:39pm
An executive order on day 1 that revoked all oil leases might be one.
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