Quote (IceMage @ 29 Oct 2020 17:42)

https://twitter.com/JTHVerhovek/status/1321825367229911042

Cool ad.

Quote (Black XistenZ @ Oct 29 2020 02:47pm)

For the last 2 weeks or so, Biden was stuck at 87-88 because the effects from the polls tightning a little bit in the battlegrounds and from time running out cancelled each other. Trump's chances in the model will only go down from here because of this time's up factor.



Cool ad indeed.

Quote (Mangix @ 29 Oct 2020 21:05)

Idk how other places do it, but 538 drops polls off after a certain time frame. Its why a few days ago there was a sudden shift back towards Trump. A lot of early polls had Biden with insane margins, skewing the numbers.
I imagine the real numbers currently are much closer than what 538 is presenting.

Quote (Black XistenZ @ Oct 29 2020 03:09pm)

538's model has a "reversion to the mean"-component whose effect gets smaller the less time there is left for reversion the mean. Similarly, the likelihood of the polls tightening gets smaller the more the time window closes.

Quote

Reversion to the mean, also called regression to the mean, is the statistical phenomenon stating that the greater the deviation of a random variate from its mean, the greater the probability that the next measured variate will deviate less far. In other words, an extreme event is likely to be followed by a less extreme event.

Quote (IceMage @ Oct 31 2020 01:08pm)

https://i.imgur.com/6slzEyY.png

:thumbsup:

Quote (IceMage @ 31 Oct 2020 18:08)

https://i.imgur.com/6slzEyY.png

:thumbsup: