Quote (thundercock @ 28 Oct 2020 22:47)
Warnock probably leads the h2h polls at this point because the Republican base is currently split between Loeffler and Collins.
Also, these special elections tend to come down to turnout - and turnout has always dropped harder for Dems than Republicans in these GA runoffs.
For example, look at the SoS race from 2018:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Georgia_Secretary_of_State_electionIn a really close election during a great year for Democrats, the margin for the Republican grew by 3.4% in the runoff, compared to the regular. And that was despite it being a year in which Dem voters were far more fired up than Republican ones. And despite Trump still being in office. And despite the high propensity voters in the Atlanta suburbs turning hard against the GOP. I already linked you the example of the 2008 Senate race, in which the R margin grew by 14ish percent in the runoff.