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#24051
Sep 5 2018 11:48am
Quote (Ghot @ Sep 5 2018 11:47am)
This in Sept. the voting will be in November. So the comparison is accurate.


it will be if the underdog comes from behind and takes down the proverbial favorite.

either way im not sure if you know what a point is or what 96 of them equals.
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#24052
Sep 5 2018 11:49am
Quote (ThatAlex @ Sep 5 2018 12:43pm)
So a lot of the ingredients for an upset are there. I just don't see it happening, unfortunately.


There's also the recent trump endorsement, which is really funny given how often trump attacked him.
Though trump is blaming the last endorsement that failed on his son. He doesn't have a great track record with his endorsements.

Quote (thesnipa @ Sep 5 2018 12:22pm)
honestly ted's moves often read like he's campaigning in Utah, not Texas. U might get some good results from the "he's a potty mouth" stuff in Mormon country.


Wonder how Utah would feel about his porn habits? haha.

This post was edited by Arsenic_Touch on Sep 5 2018 11:57am
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#24053
Sep 5 2018 11:52am
Quote (Ghot @ Sep 5 2018 10:47am)
This in Sept. the voting will be in November. So the comparison is accurate.


If it is a bad November for conservatives it is going to be interesting to see your reaction because right now you seem to be in a complete denial of where the momentum is at.

Some of your comments acting like moderates are switching to Trump and the like really show how disconnected you are from the current environment

Even if Democrats do less than great you're still pretty off on where we stand right now
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#24054
Sep 5 2018 11:58am
Quote (Ghot @ 5 Sep 2018 12:31)
Strawberry candy and democrat dreams.


/e If irc the "polls" had Hillary with a 96 point lead.

/ee Beto is against just about everything held dear by Texans.


Maybe Lolingington Post.

FiveThirtyEight had Clinton winning the popular vote by 3.6%. She won by 2.1%, well within the margin of error. Popular vote historically has a high correlation with the EC.

I'm not denying Trump out-campaigned her in the key swing states or that some sites were far too bullish on Clinton. But even Nate Silver's model gave Trump a 28.6% chance. I think that's fair based on the info we had at the time. And polling had little time to accurately assess the effect of the Comey letter in time.

My point is that things are more complicated than good poll-bad poll. The fact Trump won doesn't mean polls are wrong. Polling is an inexact science.
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#24055
Sep 5 2018 12:00pm
Quote (ThatAlex @ Sep 5 2018 10:58am)
Maybe Lolingington Post.

FiveThirtyEight had Clinton winning the popular vote by 3.6%. She won by 2.1%, well within the margin of error. Popular vote historically has a high correlation with the EC.

I'm not denying Trump out-campaigned her in the key swing states or that some sites were far too bullish on Clinton. But even Nate Silver's model gave Trump a 28.6% chance. I think that's fair based on the info we had at the time. And polling had little time to accurately assess the effect of the Comey letter in time.

My point is that things are more complicated than good poll-bad poll. The fact Trump won doesn't mean polls are wrong. Polling is an inexact science.


It's not like most of his supporters were basing it off anything anyway

If he lost it was rigged and if he won they all knew how it was going to end

Their bullshit was already baked in for both outcomes
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#24056
Sep 5 2018 12:04pm
Oooh, can't wait for the upcoming pay per view event.

Alex "Dumbass" Jones vs. Marco "Thug" Rubio in Senatedome '18

Tickets are on sale, tune in Sunday!
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#24057
Sep 5 2018 12:07pm
Quote (Arsenic_Touch @ Sep 5 2018 12:04pm)
Oooh, can't wait for the upcoming pay per view event.

Alex "Dumbass" Jones vs. Marco "Thug" Rubio in Senatedome '18

Tickets are on sale, tune in Sunday!


Marco Bot would be my pick but USADA has a 127% chance of busting Jones for male virility supplements.
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#24058
Sep 5 2018 12:31pm
Quote (thesnipa @ Sep 5 2018 01:46pm)
you don't rc, the polls pulled within the margin of error on all sources more or less once comey dropped the emails presser. thats why people say he cost her the election, surely you remember hearing that at least.


Ghot still thinks the FBI (& DOJ) attacked trump, not the other way around.
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#24059
Sep 5 2018 01:02pm
Quote (Beowulf @ Sep 5 2018 01:52pm)
If it is a bad November for conservatives it is going to be interesting to see your reaction because right now you seem to be in a complete denial of where the momentum is at.

Some of your comments acting like moderates are switching to Trump and the like really show how disconnected you are from the current environment

Even if Democrats do less than great you're still pretty off on where we stand right now




All I'm saying is this sounds very familiar. This was the same crap all the PaRD "experts" were spouting 1-2 months before the presidential race in 2016.
And even after that experience, those same "experts" are here once again predicting strange things... like a democrat is gonna win in TX.
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#24060
Sep 5 2018 01:25pm
Quote (ThatAlex @ Sep 5 2018 01:14pm)
What's your opinion on Lyin' Ted Cruz?


Perfect human being in every way
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