Quote (Beowulf @ 5 Sep 2018 12:27)
Would not be surprised if Cruz is ousted if it's that close in the polls given the current enthusiasm on the left. Especially with people seeing how close it is
I think the polling is favoring the Democrats. I don't have much proof of that claim, but Republicans in this state have typically outperformed their polling in some of the bigger races I can remember.
Also, Democratic voters aren't reliable in this state. Probably less so than nationally and probably less than polling suggests. Lastly, the Emerson poll had a relatively high number of 'undecided' voters. I'd guess most of those will go red rather than blue.
Thar said, it has a lot of the makings of an upset. Cruz is unlikeable and seen as very dishonest, whereas Beto comes across as genuine and sincere. Thats a bad contrast for Cruz. There's an unpopular president in the White House, and he also has an awkward relationship with that president - to put it lighlty.
Then you have the meme-tier stuff like Cruz retweeting porn, criticizing Beto for changing his name (lol), making a cringe song, and other botched attempts to go after Beto. Nobody likes this guy. As Trump frequently pointed out, not one of his peers endorsed him for President until much later in the campaign.
And O'Rourke has now entered the national scene. He's recieved lots of national attention and a couple of his speeches have gone viral. The donations have been pouring in and he's outraised Cruz by a lot. He has run an intriguing grassroots campaign. Win or lose, he has a future in the Democratic party moving forward.
So a lot of the ingredients for an upset are there. I just don't see it happening, unfortunately.