Quote (thundercock @ 9 Aug 2022 21:24)
Oh, you're strictlytalking about "electability" then. You're correct that there weren't as many electable candidates but I'm pretty sure several could have beaten Clinton. After all, Trump didn't win because the competition was weak. He won because the competition was fractured and primaries benefit people who can obtain a plurality.
Big disagree there. The competition WAS weak. If I may ask: which of the 2016 GOP primary candidates did you consider "strong" and which of them do you think had at least as much of a chance of beating Clinton as Trump had (25-30%)?
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Going back to what I said though, what makes you think that GOP voters will nominate the most "electable" candidate?
They will not nominate the most electable candidate because of his electability -
if they end up nominating an electable standard bearer (not Trump...), the electability will be a coincidence of other factors.
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What makes you think that this candidate has the infrastructure, support, charisma, etc. to beat Trump?
Beating Trump head-on in a primary in 2024 is obviously only gonna happen if Trump is weak - and I think he will be! His energy level and sharpness have declined drastically compared with 2016. His ideas and shtick are no longer fresh, they're stale and same old. I don't think that more than ~30% of the GOP primary voters are obsessed with 2020, with litigating the past. Imho, a majority would want to move on, and if Trump continues to obsess over the events from (then) 3-4 years ago, that's a minus point for him. Additionally, I do believe that establishment dislike of Trump and concern over his electability will prompt the non-trumpy factions of the GOP to quickly coalesce behind the strongest non-Trump candidate, even if his tone and policies happen to be quite trumpy (e.g. DeSantis).
Of course my entire reasoning hinges on the assumption that a majority of GOP voters supported Trump because of his policies and fighting spirit, rather than because they were (or still are) cultists. But okay, maybe I'm out of touch in this regard and place too much weight on my own motivations. Time will tell.
This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Aug 9 2022 02:10pm