Quote (thundercock @ 7 Feb 2020 19:32)
The system rewards districts where people CONSISTENTLY vote. I think that's a very fair system...
That's not actually the reason Buttigieg edged out a win over Bernie. There are two different sources of a popular vote/delegate count split in Iowa: geographic variations in the difference between a precinct's caucus and general election turnout, and variations in how concentrated or evenly spread a candidate's supporters are.
Say two precincts have a similar number of voters show up in general elections, and thus send the same number of delegates to the state convention. If the caucus turnout in the first of these precincts is at 20% of the general election level, while the other has a 30% caucus turnout, then votes in the latter will be more inefficient. In the case of a cold night in snowy Iowa, with many people still having a hangover from the Super Bowl, turnout in the state's more urban places, and college towns in particular, was probably higher than in its rural parts, giving an advantage to the rural over the urban candidate. Could go the other round too, btw!
Either way, you punch above your weight in terms of state delegates (relative to your popular vote) if you win the places where turnout dropped off
more from general election levels.
Additionally, the rules for state delegate allocation systematically and intentionally disadvantage candidates with a very concentrated supporter base. The extent of this penalty for a lack of geographic diversity is small, but it's on purpose. This again slightly hurt Bernie compared to Buttigieg.