Quote (ThatAlex @ May 3 2016 01:54pm)
Democrats have three major demographics in their favor in November of 2016:
1) Women vote. 55% of women voted for Obama in 2012. That number probably goes up if any Democrat is facing Trump. Perhaps as high as 59% or 60%. And keep in mind, 53% of all voters in 2012 were women. Even a couple of percentage points is a huge gain for the Dems.
2) Hispanic vote. 71% of Hispanics voted for Obama in 2012. With Trump as the GOP nominee, that number probably goes up, too. Yes, Trump has won the Hispanic vote in some Republican primary states, but those are GOP primaries. In the general election, the Democrats will win the vast majority of Hispanic voters. Who knows how high it will be with Trump, but it's going to be higher than 71% - maybe as high as 76%-78% or even higher.
3) Black vote. 93% of Blacks voted for Obama in 2012. I think this number goes down, but not significantly. It will still probably be 90%, plus or minus one or maybe 2 percentage points. The Democrats got 90% of the Black vote in 2000 and 88% in 2004, and that was without a Black president running (Obama).
Behind those 3 demographics (plus the solid Liberal and establishment Democratic voting base), I just don't see how Trump gets enough voters to beat the Democrats. Many Conservatives are against Trump completely, so he can't even depend on his base to fully support him. I imagine most will come around and still vote for him, but he will probably lose at least some of the typical GOP base while not gaining in many other important areas.
So yeah, behind those 3 demographics, the Democrats are heavy favorites. Hillary, Sanders, Biden - I think all 3 could beat Trump in a general. Same with Cruz. With Kasich, I think HRC would beat him but Sanders or Biden might lose.
So if Trump is indeed the GOP nominee, the DNC should consider not nominating someone who might be indicted and auto-lose. Their demographics are solidly in their favor in 2016. It would be wise to monitor the current investigation around HRC and see how it might play out before they go all-in on her.
What makes you believe this when Kasich is nearly irrelevant when it comes to voting?
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