Quote (ThatAlex @ May 3 2016 01:54pm)

Democrats have three major demographics in their favor in November of 2016:

1) Women vote. 55% of women voted for Obama in 2012. That number probably goes up if any Democrat is facing Trump. Perhaps as high as 59% or 60%. And keep in mind, 53% of all voters in 2012 were women. Even a couple of percentage points is a huge gain for the Dems.

2) Hispanic vote. 71% of Hispanics voted for Obama in 2012. With Trump as the GOP nominee, that number probably goes up, too. Yes, Trump has won the Hispanic vote in some Republican primary states, but those are GOP primaries. In the general election, the Democrats will win the vast majority of Hispanic voters. Who knows how high it will be with Trump, but it's going to be higher than 71% - maybe as high as 76%-78% or even higher.

3) Black vote. 93% of Blacks voted for Obama in 2012. I think this number goes down, but not significantly. It will still probably be 90%, plus or minus one or maybe 2 percentage points. The Democrats got 90% of the Black vote in 2000 and 88% in 2004, and that was without a Black president running (Obama).

Behind those 3 demographics (plus the solid Liberal and establishment Democratic voting base), I just don't see how Trump gets enough voters to beat the Democrats. Many Conservatives are against Trump completely, so he can't even depend on his base to fully support him. I imagine most will come around and still vote for him, but he will probably lose at least some of the typical GOP base while not gaining in many other important areas.

So yeah, behind those 3 demographics, the Democrats are heavy favorites. Hillary, Sanders, Biden - I think all 3 could beat Trump in a general. Same with Cruz. With Kasich, I think HRC would beat him but Sanders or Biden might lose.

So if Trump is indeed the GOP nominee, the DNC should consider not nominating someone who might be indicted and auto-lose. Their demographics are solidly in their favor in 2016. It would be wise to monitor the current investigation around HRC and see how it might play out before they go all-in on her.

Quote (Beowulf @ 3 May 2016 17:02)

So you think on account of possible indictment which everyone has known about this entire time they should go with Sanders or Biden anyway?

This would be achieved by Sanders flipping super delegates? Seems like that kinda stuff would be just as devastating to the party this cycle as an indictment

Quote (ThatAlex @ May 3 2016 05:08pm)

Hillary Clinton is the Democrats' most electable candidate, but they should monitor her investigation closely in the coming months.

I don't think they should pick someone else (i.e. Sanders or Biden) unless they feel like there is a decent change she gets indicted.

The DNC will know more about this investigation and her odds of being indicted over the coming months. They still have time to see how things are progressing.

I'm simply saying the DNC should nominate the person that gives them the best chance to win in November. HRC is the most electable candidate but she is also involved in an ongoing federal investigation. The DNC should consider this fact and see how things progress.

The last thing you want is a candidate who is an auto-loss, especially when the Democrats have such a huge demographic favor to win. I'm not saying the DNC should pick Biden or Sanders over Hillary because of her investigation, I'm just saying it should be something the party considers. And it doesn't seem like they are doing that right now.

Quote (ThatAlex @ May 3 2016 02:08pm)

Hillary Clinton is the Democrats' most electable candidate, but they should monitor her investigation closely in the coming months.

I don't think they should pick someone else (i.e. Sanders or Biden) unless they feel like there is a decent change she gets indicted.

The DNC will know more about this investigation and her odds of being indicted over the coming months. They still have time to see how things are progressing.

I'm simply saying the DNC should nominate the person that gives them the best chance to win in November. HRC is the most electable candidate but she is also involved in an ongoing federal investigation. The DNC should consider this fact and see how things progress.

The last thing you want is a candidate who is an auto-loss, especially when the Democrats have such a huge demographic favor to win. I'm not saying the DNC should pick Biden or Sanders over Hillary because of her investigation, I'm just saying it should be something the party considers. And it doesn't seem like they are doing that right now.

Quote (Beowulf @ 3 May 2016 17:13)

The problem is where the Sander's campaign went, it got negative and made unity between the campaigns less likely.

Had he stayed on track and focused on issues without attacking Hillary and the party he could have at least made that argument but I think it's gotten too nasty for Sanders to even be on the list anymore

Quote (ThatAlex @ May 3 2016 05:21pm)

...this is beyond any point I am making.

The DNC should put forth the candidate most likely to beat Donald Trump, if he is the GOP nominee.

This decision should include many aspects, most importantly electability, but also things such as federal investigations and potential indictments.

HRC's investigation should be monitored closely in these next few months. If it is highly unlikely she is indicted, then she is obviously the best pick.

But if it is murky and uncertain, picking her is extremely risky. You don't want to throw away an election when you have such huge demographics in your favor.

This country isn't electing Trump. Sanders or Biden would beat him, for the reasons and demographics I mentioned above.

But you know how you do get Trump as president? Nominating a candidate who gets indicted.

Quote (ThatAlex @ May 3 2016 02:21pm)

...this is beyond any point I am making.

The DNC should put forth the candidate most likely to beat Donald Trump, if he is the GOP nominee.

This decision should include many aspects, most importantly electability, but also things such as federal investigations and potential indictments.

HRC's investigation should be monitored closely in these next few months. If it is highly unlikely she is indicted, then she is obviously the best pick.

But if it is murky and uncertain, picking her is extremely risky. You don't want to throw away an election when you have such huge demographics in your favor.

This country isn't electing Trump. Sanders or Biden would beat him, for the reasons and demographics I mentioned above.

But you know how you do get Trump as president? Nominating a candidate who gets indicted.

Quote (Skinned @ 3 May 2016 17:23)

Not sure if Sanders is gonna beat Trump. Never underestimate the Socialist-Jew effect.

Quote (ThatAlex @ May 3 2016 05:26pm)

He'd beat Trump but not Kasich and maybe not Cruz.

Sanders would win the women, Hispanic, and black votes by big margins over Trump, like Hillary. You also have a sizeable NeverTrump crowd of conservatives.

Hillary will demolish Trump, and Sanders would beat him. Biden, too. Nominating Trump is a disaster for the GOP. They'd also lose some vulnerable Congessional seats.