Quote (majorblood @ 3 May 2016 15:46)
I don't understand this reasoning when Donald Trump is on track to get the most votes out of any republican nominee in history. Any other person in this election cycle would do far worse than Trump vs Hilary and the votes prove it.
I think meme magic will have a strong role to play once the election moves on to focus on Trump vs. Hilary
Quote (Beowulf @ 3 May 2016 15:51)
no idea
at this stage I don't think sanders beats trump and hillary beat sanders so i would say they are doing what is best by not blocking their clear winner
sanders is worn down and let his campaign go to shit the silverback is a real threat in the general against him imo
Democrats have three major demographics in their favor in November of 2016:
1) Women vote. 55% of women voted for Obama in 2012. That number probably goes up if any Democrat is facing Trump. Perhaps as high as 59% or 60%. And keep in mind, 53% of all voters in 2012 were women. Even a couple of percentage points is a huge gain for the Dems.
2) Hispanic vote. 71% of Hispanics voted for Obama in 2012. With Trump as the GOP nominee, that number probably goes up, too. Yes, Trump has won the Hispanic vote in some Republican primary states, but those are GOP primaries. In the general election, the Democrats will win the vast majority of Hispanic voters. Who knows how high it will be with Trump, but it's going to be higher than 71% - maybe as high as 76%-78% or even higher.
3) Black vote. 93% of Blacks voted for Obama in 2012. I think this number goes down, but not significantly. It will still probably be 90%, plus or minus one or maybe 2 percentage points. The Democrats got 90% of the Black vote in 2000 and 88% in 2004, and that was without a Black president running (Obama).
Behind those 3 demographics (plus the solid Liberal and establishment Democratic voting base), I just don't see how Trump gets enough voters to beat the Democrats. Many Conservatives are against Trump completely, so he can't even depend on his base to fully support him. I imagine most will come around and still vote for him, but he will probably lose at least some of the typical GOP base while not gaining in many other important areas.
So yeah, behind those 3 demographics, the Democrats are heavy favorites. Hillary, Sanders, Biden - I think all 3 could beat Trump in a general. Same with Cruz. With Kasich, I think HRC would beat him but Sanders or Biden might lose.
So if Trump is indeed the GOP nominee, the DNC should consider not nominating someone who might be indicted and auto-lose. Their demographics are solidly in their favor in 2016. It would be wise to monitor the current investigation around HRC and see how it might play out before they go all-in on her.