Quote (ThatAlex @ 21 Aug 2018 05:11)
"Pollsters: Trump and GOP are losing young, female voters permanently"
http://thehill.com/hilltv/what-americas-thinking/402705-pollsters-trump-and-gop-are-losing-young-female-votersSometimes I think we get too caught up in the moment- the next news cycle, the next midterm election, the next presidential election - and lose sight of the bigger picture.
What effect do y'all think Trump will have on American voters long-term?Sure, he's got really good approval ratings with Republicans right now (of which baby boomers make up a decent percentage), but what kind of PR damage could he be doing to the GOP brand in the long-term?
Personally, I was pretty surprised by how fast the country moved on from the disaster of George W. Bush, so it wouldn't surprise me to see people forget about Trump in 10-20 years. That said, Trump is different than W. I think the damage will be greater.
it's an interesting point to make. there has been a great article in the nytimes' upshot back in 2014 on how one's political views are formed mostly during the age of roughly 14-24 years.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/07/08/upshot/how-the-year-you-were-born-influences-your-politics.htmlthe article has a great visualization of the development of party preference over the various age cohorts' life. for example, the silent generation, who mostly came of age during the prosperous and calm Eisenhower-years, have been leaning strongly towards republicans for the rest of their lives, just like baby boomers, who came of age during the height of the civil rights movement, the hippie culture and then the nixon years, have tilted towards democrats for the rest of their lives.
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in this sense, it has to be expected that the same pattern will also hold true for (younger) millenials and generation Z. however, it should be noted that the country isnt dominated by one party or the other right now. we dont have a huge blue or red wave that persists for an entire generation, like what we had with FDR, Eisenhower, Johnson or Reagan. the country is roooughly split 50-50, and has been ever since 2000. hence, what I expect to be the major long-term impact of the Trump presidency on voters is that it reinforces the trenches, the polarization.
but we shouldnt blame the polarization exclusively on Trump - he could only become president thanks to preexisting, deep divisions in the country. he is a result
and an amplifier of our polarization. identity politics is really at the root of this polarization, and it has been embraced by both parties for decades. identity politics are a cancer that must be erradicated for the country to move forward. pitting whites and nonwhites, rurals and urbanites, working-class and college-educated, males and females against each other in increasingly toxic fashion is a recipe for disaster.
it's also mentioned in the article you linked:
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"When you ask millennial women who are likely voters, about 65, 68 percent would actually vote for a Democrat in the generic congressional race, so that puts them as base Democratic voters," [...]
"I think we're seeing something pretty unique among young women here, separate from young men. We're seeing a growing gender divide among this age group, and I think a lot of this has to do with Trump, but not exclusively,"
by doubling down on the current, anti-male brand of feminism, the democratic party risks alienating millenial men the same way the GOP risks losing millenial women.
And of course it has to be noted that women have always been more liberal than men, and younger voters have always tended to be more liberal than older voters. so democrats having a two-to-one edge on young women at a moment with an historically unpopular republican president in the whtie house who's constantly getting bad news cycles isnt too surprising to me, and shouldnt be overrated if you ask me.
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"So, not only in this moment are these millennial women heavily, heavily Democratic and heavily hostile to Trump, but it's likely that they are going to sort of be the vanguard of, I think, the feminization of the Democratic Party," she said.
to quote excellence:
This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Aug 21 2018 01:25pm