the big issue for trump is that he's super polarizing, but the downsides are in effect permanently while the upside only applies when he himself is on the ballot. usually, the GOP enjoys a significant turnout advantage in midterms, but the opposition to trump has really riled up the democratic base. in 2016, trump was able to counter this by creating a massive surge of rural white working-class voters, but so far, everything points towards these voters (that he himself had brought to the ballot in 2016) staying home this time.
basically, the enthusiasm is there for the Dems, and its not going away anytime soon. therefore, everything that depresses GOP turnout spells disaster for them. they could have hoped to get their base motivated before the midterms by focusing on their successes and 'wins' on the policy front, but this wont work when the message constantly gets drowned in the news cycle by some unnecessary, self-inflicted drama in the Trump White House.

so those omarosa tapes probably wont move the needle too much in trumps approval ratings and the generic ballot, but this fall, the margins are very very small, so even minor slips in support, enthusiasm or turnout can have huge effects on the outcome of the election.
This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Aug 18 2018 08:21am