Blacks arent smart enough to commit voter fraud

The degree of certainty you assign to polling (particularly that in underpolled states like AK or SC) is absurb. Wisconsin in particular is a state whose demographics and geographics in fact favor Trump tremendously. Similarly, Pennsylvania will be decided by nothing but turnout, and turnout is still unpredictable in both Philly and the rest of the state. Trump is the clear underdog in both at this point, but he can still easily win both of them without needing a miracle.

Furthermore, it must be kept in mind that South Carolina is an extremely inelastic state, due to skyhigh polarization along racial lines. Dems actually have a fairly high floor in all of the Deep South, but that's deceptive. Getting to 42 or even 44% of the vote is fairly easy for them. But from there, every additional percentage point towards a majority gets progressively more difficult to win for Democrats in states like SC or GA.

According to 538's polling average of SC, Trump is still up 6.5% there. Democrats will not be able to make up that much ground in a state like SC, even if Biden wins by double digits nationally.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/south-carolina/

I'm not saying that it's impossible or suuuuper unlikely for Biden to win SC or AK, but the notion is ridiculous that he's more likely to win these states than Trump is to win WI or PA.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Sep 30 2020 10:28pm

I was planning on taking the next 2 days off and drinking myself to death, either out of despair or jubilation (really just an excuse to drink) but now that I'm thinking about it Trump may well have a red shroud that keeps the election a toss up for like a week. I can't keep myself drunk that long.

Uh, you're referring to the aftermath of election day, arent you? Well, Trump will lead on election night before the mail ballots come in, but not all states will take equally long to process them. For example, Florida is typically very good with producing quick results. It shouldnt take them too many days to produce a result.

So for example, if we know by Thursday that Biden has won Florida by 5%, then we dont really have to wait for the official results from the other states to know that he has won the election, and won it in a landslide. Any Biden win in Florida implies an overwhelming probability for him to win the entire thing. Similarly, if Trump wins FL by more than 2, he probably wins the EC. If Trump wins Florida by around 1%, that's where things get dicey.

I'm referencing the scenario where Trump is winning by a non-negligable margin that may or may not be made up by mail in ballots.

yeah, if Biden wins Florida and clinches the night early, then it's just done. Trump won't have a leg to stand on.

Yeah well, he will be up on election night, even in scenarios where he loses all the battlegrounds comfortably. And no one knows the benchmarks so that we could tell from his margin on election night if he's over- or underperforming the polls. Until important states come in with official results, we'll most likely not have a clue. Like I said, Florida is a good candidate for a state that will have final results relatively soon.

So my option is not to drink, which isn't an option, or stay drunk for several days until it's confirmed, which also isn't an option.

How does one solve this? You're German. You should know....

I think a lot of the mail-in ballots will have been received and processed well-before election night: https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/vopp-table-16-when-absentee-mail-ballot-processing-and-counting-can-begin.aspx

We should know AZ, FL, NE-2, and NC with a pretty high degree of certainty on election night. GA, IA, ME-2, MI, NV, PA, TX, and WI are the states/districts that begin counting only on election day. It's very possible that we know who wins on election night just based on those states. Obviously, it would be irresponsible to call the election but the people who pay attention will have an idea.

The solution is to keep drinking for 2 days, but just enough to stay tipsy without being fully drunk. So about 1 beer every 2-3 hours I would say.

Oooor you say "fuck it" and go all in:


This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Oct 1 2020 12:09am

You promised you would eat your hat if romney lost

You dont have to do it now, but your powers of prediction are less than desired.

This post was edited by EndlessSky on Oct 1 2020 08:10am