This is the last update before the debate where Trump needs to absolutely KILL it to have a chance at winning. We've already had almost a million people vote already compared to 10k 4 years ago. By the time we get to the 2nd presidential debate a significant amount of people in swing states will have cast their vote as well. Right now, Biden is ahead by 7 points nationally which is an unmitigated disaster this close to the election. It's so bad right now that Trump's former campaign manager tried to kill himself! We've had a couple events that could shift the race (ACB nomination, Trump tax returns, etc.) so stay on your toes. I'll be doing weekly updates from here on out since we're so close to the race. It should be noted that Trump pulled out of almost ALL swing state markets in terms of ad buys (though the digital campaign is still doing well).
Sources:
https://www.newsweek.com/over-860000-americans-have-already-voted-compared-fewer-10000-this-point-2016-1534452
https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/27/politics/brad-parscale-hospitalized/index.html
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/republican-worries-rise-as-trump-campaign-pulls-back-from-television-advertising/2020/09/10/92db20e4-f2b7-11ea-b796-2dd09962649c_story.html

AK: Trump +4.5. This stands for Alaska. Yes, ALASKA. Why am I talking about Alaska? Because the Senate seat is vulnerable and Biden is in a statistical tie according to the latest poll. Maybe enough military officers live there to push it to Biden? Who knows...I can't imagine this being an easy state to poll. They do have a bit of a libertarian/maverick streak up there so it's not the craziest thing. 538 chance to win: Trump 79%, Economist chance to win: Trump 92%.
AZ: Biden +3.5, was +5.0. There's even more variance here but this is slowly shifting to a tossup. There's some good pollsters that show this race from Biden +11 to Trump +1. Obviously this favors Biden but it shouldn't surprise anyone if Trump wins this state, especially given its history. 538 chance to win: Biden 64%, Economist chance to win: Biden 62%.
FL: Biden +1.7, was +2.7. Obviously a must win for Trump which is why it's one of the few states that he's still doing TV buys. Early voting doesn't start until 10 days before the election but quite a bit of the state is expected to vote by mail (at least a third). This state will be VERY sensitive to newsworthy events. 538 chance to win: Biden 58%, Economist chance to win: Biden 67%.
GA: Trump +1.1, was Trump +1.5. There are reports that both campaigns are investing heavily in legal teams to contest the election. If there's going to be election fuckery (not necessarily illegal, but unethical), it's going to be here. Georgia doesn't have the best record when it comes to election integrity. 538 chance to win: Trump 64%, Economist chance to win: Trump 63%.
IA: Trump +0.8, was Trump +1.6. We have a couple more polls that show the race between +3 Biden and +3 Trump. Ernst is polling behind Trump so expect her to make a big deal about ACB. 538 chance to win: Trump 63%, Economist chance to win: Trump 67%.
ME-2: Biden +3.4, was Biden +1.0. This is only 1 EV so it's not particularly important. However, it should be a good bellwether with how well Trump is doing with white voters. If he loses this, I think it'd be difficult for him to win the election. 538 chance to win: Trump 53%. Economist: N/A
MI: Biden +6.9, was +7.6. This seems out of reach for Trump. The interesting part of this race is that the GOP challenger is polling ahead of Trump by a healthy margin. Wouldn't it be something if a black Republican is the reason why the GOP keeps the Senate under a Biden administration... 538 chance to win: Biden 86%, Economist chance to win: Biden 88%.
MN: Biden +8.7, was +6.4. Trump flat out shouldn't campaign here anymore. The law and order message obviously failed. 538 chance to win: Biden 88%, Economist chance to win: Biden 92%.
NE-2: Biden +5.4. I'm adding this because this is also a good bellwether for how Biden is doing with educated whites. Biden should win this pretty easily but it's close enough to pay attention to. 538 chance to win: Trump 66%. Economist: N/A
NV: Biden +6.4, was +5.9. This state is getting polled a lot more now which is good. Nevada is tricky because polling has historically underestimated the Democratic vote share. In addition, the Hispanics in Nevada are quite a bit different than the ones in FL and AZ because they are critical to the labor class in this state. 538 chance to win: Biden 82%, Economist chance to win: Biden 85%.
NH: Biden +6.8, was +6.9. Nothing to report here. 538 chance to win: Biden 74%, Economist chance to win: Biden 86%.
NC: Biden +1.1, was +1.4. Early voting starts 19 days before the election so pay close attention to turnout in this state. 538 chance to win: Biden 54%, Economist chance to win: Biden 54%.
OH: Biden +1.0, was Trump +0.9. This is really bad news for Trump. Ohio is significantly more Republican than the median voter and this is a tossup. Trump isn't doing TV ads here anymore which I think is a huge mistake. If he loses this, it's LONG over. Foxnews had this at +5 recently which I think is an outlier but the MOE is still within tossup. UVA came out with some analysis for the nerds: https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/states-of-play-ohio/ 538 chance to win: Biden 52%, Economist chance to win: Trump 65%.
PA: Biden +5.5, was +5.1. The race is remarkably stable here. Unless there is a fundamental error in polling, I think Biden should feel pretty darn good about his chances. The latest polls have Biden at +9 which is REALLY rough for Trump. There are reports of Ghot posting 9gag memes on doors. 538 chance to win: Biden 79%, Economist chance to win: Biden 82%.
TX: Trump +1.9, was Trump +0.8. As I said before, Cornyn is polling ahead of Trump. It will be interesting to see how ACB will affect his chances. 538 chance to win: Trump 71%, Economist chance to win: Trump 80%.
WI: Biden +6.5, was Biden +6.2. Watch for court cases here. Similar to Georgia, there may be some election fuckery here. It shouldn't matter though because Biden is comfortably ahead. 538 chance to win: Biden 81%, Economist chance to win: Biden 87%.

https://www.270towin.com/maps/OlKYQ

This post was edited by thundercock on Sep 29 2020 12:08am

https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1311278369296719872

Bet the farm on Biden, this election is over.

Will be sad to see you lose the farm.

thanks for the analysis thundercock. i enjoyed that

Still waiting for you to eat that hat from 2012.

Democrats even discussing Georgia is proof of their mental illness.

What are you talking about?



No, you're just not paying attention. I've given my analysis on several states for weeks now so these things shouldn't surprise you. You need to prepare yourself, mentally, for a Biden landslide. People like Ghot, are fucked and will likely have a mental breakdown. It might not be a landslide, it could be a close election, but this thing is baked. Just look at the data. Now, Trump will probably win Georgia. But the fact that he has to devote resources there to save his ass is problematic. Biden is closer to winning Alaska and South Carolina than Trump is to winning Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

The Governor and legislature of Georgia is red. THey will shutdown the fuckery that gave stacey abrams a chance in 2018.

Indeed, black voters are a substantial problem.