I am more inclined to agree with Donald Trump on this one. I think the electoral college is a disaster for a democracy.

based on the fundamentals, which were great at the time, gore never should have lost that race. particularly not against an incompetent and intellectually very limited guy like bush jr. hillary actually ran a much better campaign than gore did.


That "one popular vote win out of the last 7 elections"-talking point is a very selective stat. we could just as well say "4 out of the last 10 elections".

and lets not forget that the conservative vote in 92 and 96 got effectively split up between the republican candidates and Ross Perot. In 92, Bush senior and Perot got a combined 56% of the vote.

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aaaand lets also not forget that the structural majority which the democratic coalition currently has on the presidential level is in significant parts explained by the materialization of the waves of illegal immigration from the 70s through 90s - the US-born children of those immigrants have reached voting age, and are giving the democrats a large chunk of their current edge at the presidential level. to go into detail on this point:

for example, if we look at 2000:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2000#Voter_demographics

we see that latinos made up 7% of the voters, and democrats had a margin of 27% among latino voters. 0.27*0.07 = 0.0189, or roughly 1.9%. so the democrats in 2000 got 1.9 percentage points of their national total out of latino voters, and won the national popular vote by 0.5%. it is unlikely that a good quarter of this latino vote were the US-born children of illegal immigrants from the 70s, who were 20-30 years of age in 2000, but it's probably close.


in 2016, we have the following:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2000#Voter_demographics

11% of the voters were latinos, and democrats got a margin of 36% out of them. 0.36*0.11 = 0.0396, or roughly a national effect of 4%. clinton won the national popular vote by 2.1%, so for "illegal immigration + birthright citizenship + time" to explain this margin, we would need the US-born children of illegal immigrants to make up roughly half of the latino voters of 2016. the children of the immigrants from the 70s onward occupy the age brackets from 18 to around 46 years of age. considering that latinos are a young-skewing demographic group, these cases again probably didnt make up half of all 2016 latino voters, but easily 33%+.

so to sum it up, the effect of decades of large levels of illegal latino immigration does not explain the entirety of the current democratic advantage in the popular vote on the presidential level, but a very large chunk of it.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Aug 17 2018 11:10am

where did you get this false document ?

If not for the electoral college, this country really WOULD be fucked up.

Welp, it's not going anywhere. It's a good thing the framers of the constitution didn't trust direct democracy. Protects us from the tyranny of the majority.

Tbt it was best when only property owners could vote

while this is true its also not a complete story. some states are populating faster than others, and will get more electoral votes than others once the 2020 census happens. a few to CA im sure, a few off of whichever square state is stagnant, etc. over time the electoral college will devolve in it's potency for the bible belt saving the GOP, imo.

new mexico, alabama, mississippi, kansas, and missouri are all growing below average. West Virginia is in negative growth. Florida is always a swing state, and Texas is growing fast but not all for the GOP

Definitely happening. I'd say states are probably a bad place to look for those though. You really need to look by cities. IE: 95+% of the land area of PA is Republican but Philadelphia alone turns it into a battleground state.

My favorite part of this map is the Bright red Illinois. I live in a border state, and i couldn't be happier to live on the right side of the imaginary line. Illinois is imploding and it's truly a mass exodus from that hell hole. People, business, $$$$.

They're like refugees. and the neighboring states welcome with open arms. The taxes on my home are very low. If you teleported my house accross the state line into illinois, my taxes would easily quadruple.

ya the rural vs urban map is way harder to draw any implications from, and is way more confusing just to read. at the state level growth is fairly consistent in many places, the ones that are yellow or red are the important parts of the map. and texas, the GOP seems to think texas cant be lost. give it a few decades at that pace and we'll see.



Illinois born and raised baby! Fuck that state, fuck chicago, and fuck anything east of freeport. Im looking at you Rockford, you bloated piece of shit.

This post was edited by thesnipa on Aug 17 2018 11:33am