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Jul 21 2018 08:43pm
Quote (ThatAlex @ Jul 21 2018 10:38pm)
I agree with you. The FBI can say they had a bunch of other sources, but it really appears that the Steel Dossier was at the center of it all.

However, it might be a moot point. Researching the FISA warrant process, it looks like they are extremely easy to obtain. Even without the Steele Dossier, the FBI very likely (99.7% based on history) could have monitored Page.

Which leads me to my next question: Shouldn't more Americans should be pissed that we essentially have a secret, non-adversarial court that can monitor American citizens without probable cause?



We already are pissed.

We are also pissed that Mueller could search Cohen's place w/o probable cause or a warrant. That they could abuse attorney client privilege as well.
Much of this crap is apparently what Trump is trying to "clean up".

Which, is why everyone and their mother is after Trump. They see edifices years long in the creation, near to toppling.


/e I mean no one really thinks they are after the Russians, do they? Hell, we had proof 8-9 years ago of Russian illegal involvement and we just let that slide.

This post was edited by Ghot on Jul 21 2018 08:55pm
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Jul 21 2018 09:00pm
Quote (EndlessSky @ 21 Jul 2018 21:41)
Hence all of the deep state "REEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE"-ing from the trump cult


Quote (Goomshill @ 21 Jul 2018 21:42)
people, caring about government surveillance infringing on their right to privacy? lel
remind me, all the people who pretended to be upset when Snowden & Assange revealed various NSA/CIA/FBI mass surveillance, hacking tools & all the other fun toys the government use to strip away our civil liberties...
what do those folk have to say today when it sounds like Assange is finally getting black bagged?


Quote (Ghot @ 21 Jul 2018 21:43)
We already are pissed.

We are also pissed that Mueller could search Cohen's place w/o probable cause or a warrant. That they could abuse attorney client privilege as well.
Much of this carp is apparently what Trump is trying to "clean up".

Which, is why everyone and their mother is after Trump. They see edifices years long in the creation, near to toppling.


/e I mean no one really thinks they are after the Russians, do they?


I'm going to be honest with yall. I'm really struggling with this Russia stuff.

I've questioned the Constitutionality of Special Counsels in general, but that's a whole other topic.

I don't know if the Trump campaign colluded or conspired with Russia. I'd say it's unlikely, but it's possible.

But I also don't know if I trust our intelligence agencies to conduct this in a fair, apolitical way.
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Jul 21 2018 09:00pm
Quote (Goomshill @ Jul 22 2018 01:42pm)
people, caring about government surveillance infringing on their right to privacy? lel
remind me, all the people who pretended to be upset when Snowden & Assange revealed various NSA/CIA/FBI mass surveillance, hacking tools & all the other fun toys the government use to strip away our civil liberties...
what do those folk have to say today when it sounds like Assange is finally getting black bagged?


Fighting for his pardon.
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Jul 21 2018 09:09pm
Quote (Plaguefear @ Jul 21 2018 09:00pm)
Fighting for his pardon.


If Trump were an ideologue willing to pick that hill to die upon, he wouldn't be president today. He'd give up Barabbas in a heartbeat
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Jul 21 2018 09:16pm
Quote (Goomshill @ Jul 21 2018 11:09pm)
If Trump were an ideologue willing to pick that hill to die upon, he wouldn't be president today. He'd give up Barabbas in a heartbeat




I never said he was without a doubt, capable of doing it. But he did claim to be going to try, if elected.
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Jul 21 2018 09:28pm
Quote (Goomshill @ Jul 21 2018 09:17pm)
Anyway, comparing the FISA document to the old republican and democratic memos, its clear that both memos were factually accurate, and while both were clearly selectively choosing details to represent to support their narratives, the republican memo was reasonably accurate whereas the democratic memo was full of spin factor 11/10, bullshitus supremus. The central, really the only nonredacted evidence against Carter Page is the Steele Dossier. And it was indeed incorrectly (benefit of the doubt: mistakenly) presented as if Isikoff was providing confirmation that didn't stem from Steele, when Isikoffs source in actuality was Steele. And there's no way without Steele's allegations that the FISA warrant request would have any substance. Maybe they could get it rubber stamped on pure bullshit anyway, but the Steele dossier was their central premise. And another fine point in the dueling memos was that the warrant does indeed lay out that the FBI authorized payments to Steele to recompense him for the Dossier, meaning the FBI was going to pay him for it. But the democrats split hairs by playing up the fact that this payment was later canceled- when it was discovered that Steele was soliciting the media with the dossier. That was never a point of credibility in Steeles favor, and it doesn't change the DoJ's intent to pay for the Dossier.

so nothing we didn't already know, but Adam Schiff is even more full of shit than Nunes and that is saying something


That's a strange conclusion. Lol.

The Democratic memo said there was a multi-pronged rationale. Clearly there was. Lots and lots of redacted material in that document. Unless I'm missing something, the presentation of the Isikoff article was an example of Carter Page denying the allegations, just as the Democratic memo describes.

Maybe it'd be worthwhile to read the Democratic memo again... they lay out some good evidence that destroys the "FBI was being political" argument.

On the other hand, the Nunes memo makes a big deal about nonsense like not including the words "DNC" or "Hillary Clinton" in the document. The FBI made clear that the funding was from a political source.

This post was edited by IceMage on Jul 21 2018 09:29pm
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Jul 21 2018 09:59pm
Quote (IceMage @ Jul 21 2018 09:28pm)
That's a strange conclusion. Lol.

The Democratic memo said there was a multi-pronged rationale. Clearly there was. Lots and lots of redacted material in that document. Unless I'm missing something, the presentation of the Isikoff article was an example of Carter Page denying the allegations, just as the Democratic memo describes.

Maybe it'd be worthwhile to read the Democratic memo again... they lay out some good evidence that destroys the "FBI was being political" argument.

On the other hand, the Nunes memo makes a big deal about nonsense like not including the words "DNC" or "Hillary Clinton" in the document. The FBI made clear that the funding was from a political source.


uh it literally says the Isikoff story wasn't from Steele, which is false. Its unambiguous in the claim. The republican memo rightly identified that error, the democratic memo deflected.



There's a difference between a 'multi-pronged rationale' and 'one central piece of evidence with some smaller claims that can't stand on their own'
If there was supposed to be a pretense of probable cause, then at least in the unredacted portion there's nothing apparent for actionable intelligence, just background profiling.
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Jul 21 2018 10:12pm
Quote (Goomshill @ Jul 21 2018 10:59pm)
uh it literally says the Isikoff story wasn't from Steele, which is false. Its unambiguous in the claim. The republican memo rightly identified that error, the democratic memo deflected.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DiqkeeGUYAAzTEV.jpg

There's a difference between a 'multi-pronged rationale' and 'one central piece of evidence with some smaller claims that can't stand on their own'
If there was supposed to be a pretense of probable cause, then at least in the unredacted portion there's nothing apparent for actionable intelligence, just background profiling.


So there's two separate things:
1. Was Steele the source behind the Yahoo news story? Yes, he was. FBI got that wrong in the FISA.
2. Was the Yahoo news story used as corroborating evidence for the Steele dossier claims? No, it was not. It was put in the FISA as an example of Carter Page denying the claims.

I don't see how we can know whether the Steele dossier claims on Carter Page was the one central piece of evidence. We already know Russian intelligence tried to recruit Carter Page in 2013, and he's been looked at by the FBI years before he joined the Trump campaign. This isn't some random American off the street who the FBI haphazardly decided to surveil one day because he used to work on Trump's campaign.

---

Good twitter thread by former intel guy:
https://twitter.com/pwnallthethings/status/1020800152926384128


Oh, and Carter Page will be on SOTU with Jake Tapper tomorrow at 9 AM. Good times.

This post was edited by IceMage on Jul 21 2018 10:28pm
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Jul 21 2018 11:17pm
Quote (IceMage @ Jul 22 2018 12:12am)
Good twitter thread by former intel guy:
[URL=https://twitter.com/pwnallthethings/status/1020800152926384128]https://twitter.com/pwnallthethings/status/1020800152926384128[/URL]


Nunes is a partisan hack we already knew this
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Jul 21 2018 11:38pm
If Trump actually got impeached couldn't he step down, make Mike president, Mike rehire Trump as his Vice and then step down making Trump president again?
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