Quote (fender @ 19 Jul 2018 01:52)
i totally agree with you that we can say only say for sure how EXACTLY his policies affected debt after he left office - but those aren't just wild, politically motivated speculations, those are projections based on policy as they have been made for every president - i'm sure with your more than basic economic knowledge you're very well aware of that and see how that's not unreasonable, even just based on common sense...
btw, what's also not included yet is the possible impact of the trade wars he started - at this point ofc the range would be massive as no one can know how bad he will escalate them, and what america's trading partners will end up doing.
i just thought i'd mention it since at some point a somewhat closed off american market could result in the debt that's currently being sold internationally to offset trade deficits, having to be sold domestically - which would further stunt the (already overestimated) growth that was expected to offset the additional debt made by taxbreaks...
we just dont know how the global economy will develop over the next years yet. the current growth rates were thought to be unattainable just a couple of years ago. I was expecting a global recession any day since 2015, and it still hasnt arrived yet.
yes, at the moment, the risks outweigh the upsides in the economic outlook. and yes, if we're projecting from where we're at right now, the mean or median projection would have the GOP tax cut expanding the debt by a significant amount; would have their claims of the thing "financing itself through increased growth rates" turn out to be whishful thinking. I dont deny all that; and if you remember my reactions here on PaRD on the tax reform bill, I have critized large parts of it from the very beginning.
all I'm saying is that you and others underestimate the uncertainty with respect to the future economic development, and that those grim scenarios are realistic, but far from set in stone at this point in time. I'm simply calling for some caution when drawing conclusions about uncertain future developments.
This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Jul 18 2018 08:56pm