I'll bet 260fg 1:1 on Biden winning.

I have no idea how it's going to go. They're both insanely weak candidates at this point, so it's really just a question of who's weaker. The error bars are so huge there's no way to decide who's gonna win so 1:1 seems pretty fair.

It's kinda insane how Biden went from being a clear winner just like 8 months ago to a total toss up.

Biden was never the clear winner and my money is on Biden because I refuse to bet in favor of the end of America.

Appreciate your thoughts though.

Biden should win, but who knows. The problem is that a lot of uneducated voters that understand very little how inflation and other economic struggles, actually work. Trump left us in a bad position, and fixing that isn't just printing more money. Biden did a lot of good with the numerous acts passed, and the attempt at student loan forgiveness (zero outrage at the PPP loans forgiven). But, I think the Israel/Palestine conflict will lose a lot of votes, pushing it (unfortunately) to a close election.

Biden was tied for a long time with no campaign happening and was scoring a lot of points with the base for his pro-union stances. Then Oct 6th happened.

I just don't see how people can look at Trump's ranting and whining on truth social and his interviews and think, "yea, that's my guy!".

If I heard Biden bitching this much id pull my vote. I don't think a day has gone by in the last year where Trump hasn't played the victim.

This post was edited by Pyrotechx on May 31 2024 12:44am

100% agree

You have it wrong. Outside of Michigan this is a non issue for the voters who will decide the election. Biden's best bet for acquiring the votes necessary to win would be to listen to voices like Ruy Teixeira and pivot hard to the center. But that would go against the ideological convictions of his staffers and the NGOs which serve as the foot soldiers of the modern left-wing Democratic party. He's caught between a rock and a hard place. The cultural militancy, liberal arts bailouts, and eco-spending/regulations alienate him with the voters he desperately needs to win.

It was not just Oct 6th which happened.

Over in Ukraine, the side which Biden supported - including with sanctions which came at sizable cost to American consumers - has a bleak outlook and might get a very bad result. He has been unable to get the Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea under control. And when it comes to the Gaza war, Biden's lack of clout with either side has been palpable. So all in all, his foreign policy is lying in shambles. This is a point which hurts him a lot with hawkish, centrist to center-right "NeverTrump" voters.

Furthermore, immigration at the southern border surged like crazy in Nov and Dec 2023, to the point that it made national headlines. Inflation stubbornly refused to go down to a level which would have allowed the FED to cut interest in time for an effect to be felt before election day. The job market is softening up, at least in some industries. He had a string of "senior moments" which coincided with slow news cycles and got a lot of attention.

According to official government statistics, real wages have NOT caught up to the 2021-2022 inflation surge; they're basically stuck where they were 18 months ago. Median Americans are still poorer today than they were when Biden got inaugurated, or during the last "normal" Trump quarter (i.e. before covid checks started skewing the statistic).[1]

[1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1kkRB





Trump getting banned from Twitter was a blessing in disguise. His insane ramblings disappearing into the void on TruthSocial is unironically the biggest asset of his campaign.




I already bet my 4k fg on Biden vs Bazi's 8k fg on Trump a couple of months ago.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on May 31 2024 06:45pm

https://x.com/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1796764237685219564

Trump finally faces some consequences for his crimes, and Tucker's response is "they'd execute all of us and cheer it on television".

I think this shows that behind the bluster of "Trump is helped by becoming a convicted felon!", the cult is unsteadied. If the Dear Leader can be prosecuted and convicted for his crimes, what else could violate my worldview? Could he legitimately lose an election?




Man Bazi just loves to lose FG.

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Update on the VP race, Marco going full MAGA nutter:

https://x.com/marcorubio/status/1796628397654778005

This post was edited by IceMage on Jun 2 2024 05:49am