Quote (EndlessSky @ 25 Apr 2024 15:56)
I think you lost the sense of the full discussion. I think we both agree about the nature of both events.
If the Trump electors had defected, Biden would have been gifted a landslide victory in 2024. Trump wouldn't be able to run on the "they're all out to get me" tagline anymore. It's a good thing that the election wasn't swayed by disloyal delegates back then.
Oh, I absolutely agree with you on disloyal delegates. My point is just that Jackson could campaign, and win, based on a legitimate gripe while Trump's complaints about the stolen election are mostly baseless and it was actually him who tried to incentivize electors to defect.
Quote (Landmine @ 25 Apr 2024 15:52)
Evidence. 50 intelligence officials signing on to laptop Russia information knowing it to be untrue. Which was enough to sway the election.
I really doubt it. Trump would have needed a uniform national swing of 0.63% to barely eke out a contested win via a 269-269 EC tie and a narrow win in the contingent election in the House; he would have needed a swing of 1.16% for an outright win.
You gotta keep in mind that some 85-90% of the electorate consists of partisans with staunch political leanings, people whose vote is not up for grabs under any realistic circumstances. Surely not for a story as obscure as Hunter's Laptop. And Biden won at least half of those swing voters. So realistically, the Hunter Biden laptop story would have needed to convince something like 1 in 6 of the swing voters who ultimately went with Biden to switch over to Trump. I just don't see it. Hunter was not the candidate, his fuckups only reflect extremely marginally on his father. Things would be different if the Hunter laptop stuff had produced tangible evidence for direct corruption by Joe, but it didn't.
This is different from the Clinton email investigation at the end of the 2016 cycle. The allegation in that case was directly related to the candidate Hillary, and it reinforced long-standing negative perceptions about her shadiness and ruthlessness. Biden didn't have nearly as bad a reputation, so I just don't see how an investigation into his son would have poisoned public perception of him to the degree necessary for flipping the election.
This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Apr 25 2024 02:42pm
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