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Oct 16 2023 01:25pm
Quote (Meanwhile @ Oct 16 2023 12:18pm)
I guess what you posted is proportionally presenting the chances for peace and reverse-proportionally the chances for unfortunate responses with terrorism.
France officially asked to stop this SHIT at the 1967 map step.

And guess what ? The idea for Israli far right gov is now to say that all the today's green area in your last map is... Controlled by Hamas and so on, has no rights to exist.


Even a return to the 1967 borders seems tenuous. I think it should be fair to say that a move from the playbook of colonialism is to divide the area that you're 'leaving' in such a way that it is extremely likely that in-fighting and civil wars will result in the power vacuum, and I think that is a prime issue here in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

With a two-state solution, you'd have a Palestine that is divided between The West Bank and Gaza? With two different main holders of power (Hamas and Fatah)? To have Gaza as part of a Palestinian state but completely subsumed by the rest of Israel? It just seems geographically difficult, no?
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Oct 16 2023 01:32pm
Quote (Handcuffs @ Oct 16 2023 02:25pm)
Even a return to the 1967 borders seems tenuous. I think it should be fair to say that a move from the playbook of colonialism is to divide the area that you're 'leaving' in such a way that it is extremely likely that in-fighting and civil wars will result in the power vacuum, and I think that is a prime issue here in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

With a two-state solution, you'd have a Palestine that is divided between The West Bank and Gaza? With two different main holders of power (Hamas and Fatah)? To have Gaza as part of a Palestinian state but completely subsumed by the rest of Israel? It just seems geographically difficult, no?


being separated isn't an issue, just have Hamas dig a terror tunnel between Gaza and the West Bank.
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Oct 16 2023 01:32pm
Can someone explain to me what Israel will achieve by invading Gaza and killing tens of thousands of people? What is the long term benefit here for Israel?
[ This is based on the notion that the people they kill will have relatives and countrymen who are going to bear a very long grudge ].

Has Israel even stated what their goal is ? Because if its "defeat Hamas" then by their very action, they are creating more Hamas.

This post was edited by ferdia on Oct 16 2023 01:35pm
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Oct 16 2023 01:36pm
Quote (ferdia @ Oct 16 2023 10:32pm)
Can someone explain to me what Israel will achieve by invading Gaza and killing tens of thousands of people? What is the long term benefit here for Israel?
This is based on the notion that the people they kill will have relatives and countrymen who are going to bear a very long grudge.


Israel will go into Gaza to remove Hamas from existence.
Why do you think “tens of thousands” will die ?
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Oct 16 2023 01:40pm
Quote (ferdia @ Oct 16 2023 02:32pm)
Can someone explain to me what Israel will achieve by invading Gaza and killing tens of thousands of people? What is the long term benefit here for Israel?
[ This is based on the notion that the people they kill will have relatives and countrymen who are going to bear a very long grudge ].

Has Israel even stated what their goal is ? Because if its "defeat Hamas" then by their very action, they are creating more Hamas.


the main objective of the invasion is to raise the northernmost areas of Gaza city so the tunnels underneath it can be destroyed, and then create a buffer zone that increases the distance between rocket launching sites and the Israeli border to prevent future attacks from piercing the iron dome.

this is why the cry of indignation at the evacuation order were so hollow. they never wanted everyone to leave the strip entirely, nor do they even require them to abandon the city entirely for now. they want to set up camp in the north of gaza city for now. thus turning back on the water further south to try and draw people down.
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Oct 16 2023 01:40pm
Quote (Handcuffs @ Oct 16 2023 03:25pm)
Even a return to the 1967 borders seems tenuous. I think it should be fair to say that a move from the playbook of colonialism is to divide the area that you're 'leaving' in such a way that it is extremely likely that in-fighting and civil wars will result in the power vacuum, and I think that is a prime issue here in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

With a two-state solution, you'd have a Palestine that is divided between The West Bank and Gaza? With two different main holders of power (Hamas and Fatah)? To have Gaza as part of a Palestinian state but completely subsumed by the rest of Israel? It just seems geographically difficult, no?


Why would Israel return to pre 1967 borders when half a dozen of much bigger and populous Muslim countries got together (once again) in 1973 to try and wipe them out. Wars of aggression have consequences. The Muslims around them tried time after time to wipe out the Jews only to get beaten back. If you keep trying to sucker punch me over and over, it's natural consequence that you shouldn't expect some 'fair' counter. This is old school politics. You lose a war of aggression, you can expect to lose contested territory. Germany found this out after WW1 and WW2. Armenia found this out recently. History is full of these type of examples.

Quote (ferdia @ Oct 16 2023 03:32pm)
Can someone explain to me what Israel will achieve by invading Gaza and killing tens of thousands of people? What is the long term benefit?


Wipe out current generation of Hamas fighters, only for them to respawn in 5 years when the current 13 year old's grow up. There's no winning this war until surrounding Muslims accept Israel's right to exist with it's capital in Jerusalem and Palestinians also accept and stop trying to change this outcome. IMO this is the first step, once this is accepted only then I think a two-state solution will be possible.
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Oct 16 2023 01:43pm
Quote (Handcuffs @ 16 Oct 2023 21:25)
Even a return to the 1967 borders seems tenuous. I think it should be fair to say that a move from the playbook of colonialism is to divide the area that you're 'leaving' in such a way that it is extremely likely that in-fighting and civil wars will result in the power vacuum, and I think that is a prime issue here in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

With a two-state solution, you'd have a Palestine that is divided between The West Bank and Gaza? With two different main holders of power (Hamas and Fatah)? To have Gaza as part of a Palestinian state but completely subsumed by the rest of Israel? It just seems geographically difficult, no?


Two state solution is super hazardous, IMHO the best way is to integrate, under UN supervision* palestinians into the population while giving them back their properties, along with giving them basic rights including voting rights.

Israeli arabs are representing 1/4 or 1/5 of the population since a while already, so this means this story about the "bad arabs who want to kill all of us" is a lie... A lie from the far right.

* Massive effort, paid with U.S money, because U.S are also vastly responsible of all deads.
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Oct 16 2023 01:46pm
Quote (thesnipa @ Oct 16 2023 12:32pm)
being separated isn't an issue, just have Hamas dig a terror tunnel between Gaza and the West Bank.


That tunnel system must be so elaborate.

Quote (ferdia @ Oct 16 2023 12:32pm)
Can someone explain to me what Israel will achieve by invading Gaza and killing tens of thousands of people? What is the long term benefit here for Israel?
[ This is based on the notion that the people they kill will have relatives and countrymen who are going to bear a very long grudge ].

Has Israel even stated what their goal is ? Because if its "defeat Hamas" then by their very action, they are creating more Hamas.


Israel has unfortunately taken Hamas' bait, imo. I too am confused what the gameplan is here. Some say that Israel is looking to secure/police Gaza to rid it of Hamas, and then work towards something akin to The Marshall Plan for the purposes of reconstructing Gaza.
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Oct 16 2023 01:48pm
Quote (ferdia @ 16 Oct 2023 21:32)
Can someone explain to me what Israel will achieve by invading Gaza and killing tens of thousands of people? What is the long term benefit here for Israel?
[ This is based on the notion that the people they kill will have relatives and countrymen who are going to bear a very long grudge ].

Has Israel even stated what their goal is ? Because if its "defeat Hamas" then by their very action, they are creating more Hamas.


They are trying to destroy the infrastructure of Hamas, their command posts, missile launch sites, underground weapons factories and tunnels.
The bulk of the Palestinians already hold a maximum grudge against Israel, can't get much worse if we're being honest.

If the Palestinian civilians follow the evacuation order and aren't stopped from leaving by Hamas, then there won't be tens of thousands of civilian casualties.
There will probably be thousands of dead Hamas fighters, but I fail to see how that's a bad thing.
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Oct 16 2023 01:50pm
Quote (Handcuffs @ Oct 16 2023 02:46pm)
That tunnel system must be so elaborate.



Israel has unfortunately taken Hamas' bait, imo. I too am confused what the gameplan is here. Some say that Israel is looking to secure/police Gaza to rid it of Hamas, and then work towards something akin to The Marshall Plan for the purposes of reconstructing Gaza.


the saddest part is, per Jared Kushner (so grain of salt but w/e) investors from Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and UAE had the money for a complete reconstruction ready, but were shot down by Hamas. and the pricetag was pitifully small, something like 6-8b$, a large sum to us but to rebuild an entire nation? that's really how bad it is there.
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