Quote (balrog66 @ Mar 25 2020 11:45am)
Modeling this is more complicated than simple multiplications. You know this.
of course it is, but that doesnt change orders of magnitude. in order for italy, in a quarantine (a bad one) to hit even 10% of their population in transmission in total numbers would still need to go up, OR we'd need a prolonged event beyond the summer die-down that's also being projected.
just some numbers rounded off:
Italy:
pop = 60 m
10% transmition rate = 6 m
current cases total = 69k
new cases per day = 6k
recovered = 8k
deaths = 6k
30 more days at 6kcases/day = 180k cases + 69k current cases = 249k cases, total. which is .0415% of their population.
but lets say its 10x more infected than that, 4%. now lets say its 10x worse than THAT. 40%. aka the lower number in the projections of infected.
are my numbers solid? no, just fucking around. but being off in my simple math by a factor of 100 compared to the "best case" being projected, seems odd to me.
edit: im also doing this math on the fly with a phone calculator. so correct anything that isnt rounding.
This post was edited by thesnipa on Mar 25 2020 10:52am