I don't think it's a matter of IF we reach 70% penetration, but when. With good social distancing and contact tracing and testing, we can put it off long enough to develop a vaccine. Collapse is not a foregone conclusion.

"Jesse Melgar, a spokesman for the governor, specified that the estimate was without mitigating factors."

Agreed. A flattened curve spreads it ~6 months



https://youtu.be/dcJDpV-igjs?t=985

https://youtu.be/aHs9VBShzbA?t=745

Estimates don't vary by much and if you want me to dig more sources I can, the vaccine is twice that long away

I agree that they are vague guesses. If someone wants to cut the penetration in half, I wouldn't argue hard against it. But based on what we are seeing in the 3 hotspots now, you do you really think the mitigation is going to stop it from eventually reaching 70%?

At the same time though, how accurate do you think it is for us to recreate SK's 1.3% mortality rate? Italy has been floating between 9-10% as the numbers roll in each day. I certainly don't think that those numbers will prove accurate in hindsight, when all the data is in. But what's a reasonable guess for the US? 2.6%?

This post was edited by Kayeto on Mar 25 2020 09:49am

basically your math has a constant, a semi constant, and a variable.

population is constant, the death rate is a semi constant based on data from other counties, and the variable is transmission rate which is the most in flux here.

doing some math, 330 x .7 x .013 = 3.003m dead, but 330 x .4 x .013 = 1.716m dead

in either case, 40% or 70% we're looking at millions dead, which im sure will come as a shock to the "flu season kills 50k annually" idiots.

overall if i was a vegas betting man i'd guess 500k total deaths by the end of this in the US, spring and fall seasons combined. but that may be optimistic.

This post was edited by thesnipa on Mar 25 2020 10:03am

Looks like both chambers and the president came to an agreement and will pass a bill. Details haven't been released.

Cmon student loan bailout! Daddy needs a new pair of no monthly payment on his wife's student loans!

but what about the case where our health care system doesn't perform as well as SK's did to achieve that low 1.3% mortality rate?



I'm curious how you arrive at 500k when 1.7mil represents the low end of both variables. Surely both of them will be at least a little higher, possibly a lot higher.

The USA lost 418k people in WW2. I can't scrape up any justification for any scenario where we won't dwarf that.

On top of all this, you have to throw in collateral damage. If health care resources are overburdened, combined with other negative to our impacts to our lives, then that's more people dying to any regular health issues they would have been able to get treated in any other year, though not directly to the virus.

This post was edited by Kayeto on Mar 25 2020 10:25am

i doubt both the veracity of the 70% rate, and the 1.3% mortality rate, not now, but long term. mainly from looking at Italy as a worse case scenario.

italy's population is right around 60 million, italy currently has 69k cases, and are SLOWLY going over the hump in their curve. and they're essentially 1 month into the fight.

so, just to play with numbers, let's say Italy holds a 6k-new-cases/day rate for another month solid, completely holding their position on the curve and not getting better.

30 x 6k = 180k cases. they currently have a 6kdeaths/8krecovered rate. REALLY bad. way worse than the mortality rate projected for the US. but they have a transmission rate that's no where near 70%, not even by an order of magnitude.

just as rough numbers we're looking at 200k cases over 2 months, then summer will curb the curve. the number of cases will either need to go up a LOT per day, or it will have to hold out for months to get even 10% of their population.


none of these ideas am i married to, im just looking at numbers and trends over time and trying to have a mildly optimistic outlook. im by no means in the "hoax" camp.

Ikr. Trump is going to be pissed.