Quote (Surfpunk @ Nov 4 2020 08:14pm)

I mean, than that it's disingenuous on its face....

Here's the MN voter registration numbers as of November 2nd: https://www.sos.state.mn.us/election-administration-campaigns/data-maps/voter-registration-counts/

Note: They're over 500K higher than that shit-tier meme pretends.

Quote (Black XistenZ @ Nov 4 2020 05:10pm)

Biden on track to very very narrowly win AZ and GA, and to win PA by a slightly more comfortable margin. This should be over, and it will take some time (until all ballots are counted) before we can assess the final margins and analyze what happened in this election. A ton to unpack for sure.

I spent most of the day on a train, and it took me almost 2 hours to read up on 90 pages of this thread, so I'll chime in in more detail later. Some preliminary thoughts:



The bottom line is probably the following: Trump is (most likely) defeated, but Trumpism will live on. The GOP holds the Senate, will most definitely hold it during the 2022 Biden midterm, and then build a huge lead when the extremely lopsided map comes up again in 4 years. It might very easily take over a decade from now on before Democrats control the Senate again. Either way, the country is more deeply polarized and divided than ever before, and this wont change anytime soon.

Liberals had hoped that this election would turn into a landslide and prove once and for all that their side of the culture wars/partisan divide is stronger. This hope was shattered, with Republicans holding the Senate, making serious inroads in the House, and Trump overperforming his polls substantially once more. Considering the glaring weaknesses of Trump and the very detrimental circumstances (huge public health and economic crises, he botched the government response; race riots across the summer which juiced black turnout), the fact that he still got so close to winning reelection against a Democratic party and an establishment which threw everything they could at him, is a testament to his strength, not his weakness.

Quote (EndlessSky @ Nov 4 2020 07:29pm)

What are your opinions on Florida man? Not sure how the subject is relevant to America in general though

Quote (Skinned @ 5 Nov 2020 02:10)

I can't believe an incumbent president lost. What incompetence.

Quote (Black XistenZ @ Nov 4 2020 07:21pm)

Dude, dont be silly. What I was saying all along was more or less confirmed yesterday: Biden was a weak candidate, and without an ill-timed once-in-a-century pandemic, Trump would have wiped the floor with him. Despite the pandemic, Trump still could have easily won this if he hadnt completely dropped the ball on the most important issue of the day. :rolleyes:

He fucked up one too many times, and yes, he deserved to be booted. But it's still obvious that any incumbent would have struggled with such a situation in a country like the U.S. (crappy and broken healthcare system, stunted welfare state, not an island where an eradication strategy was feasible, a very individualistic, petulant and freedom-minded population). This is not New Zealand, China or Japan.

Quote (Skinned @ Nov 4 2020 07:10pm)

I can't believe an incumbent president lost. What incompetence.

Evil turtle man receives a large boost in power, a quickening, as he becomes the most powerful Republican sith lord.



Lights reflecting off of eyes in the bandos.



#bargaining

Quote (Santara @ 5 Nov 2020 02:15)

The map gets redrawn next year because census.

Quote (thundercock @ 5 Nov 2020 02:19)

I want to see all the results to come in so we can do a deep dive into the crosstabs and polling error.

I'm extremely disappointed with the rust belt polling. I shit on Trafalgar for adding a "magic" Trump offset but that seems to have paid off. They probably modeled it incorrectly (by giving too many black votes to Trump) but it clearly exists. I think the Florida polling is a bit more acceptable because we simply didn't model Latinos correctly. Sometimes you miss something regional and that's okay. What's not okay is a nationwide trend that you fail to model correctly (though it seemed to work in 2018).