Quote (Ghot @ Mar 24 2020 07:51pm)

Looks to me like a kid in a statistics class, that happens to be quarantined, and has nothing better to do than spout BS.

Quote (Black XistenZ @ Mar 24 2020 07:58pm)

Already read this article days ago, and it's a good read. And while I think that the things he's saying are convincing, it must be mentioned that his arguments hinge on certain assumptions, like the availability of sufficiently widespread testing. This might be workable in industrialized countries, but what about places like India, Indonesia or Africa?

But yeah, he's essentially describing the approach that most of the world has settled on: hammer down the virus with several weeks of shutdown, then carefully and gradually open things up under a strict testing and quarantining regime. What's worrying me is that the shutdowns in Italy and Spain now date back more than 14 days and still dont show much of an effect.

Quote (Ghot @ 25 Mar 2020 02:04)

The difference is that even with the 14 days extra time, countries like Italy can't "quickly" turn out the medical hardware they need. Due to the demand elsewhere in the world it can't easily be purchased either.

A country like the US for example, CAN make use of that 2 week delay to literally create the medical hardware they need.

Quote (Santara @ Mar 24 2020 06:05pm)

At least he understands statistics. Maybe you should listen to him?

Quote (Black XistenZ @ Mar 24 2020 09:07pm)

Medical equipment is relevant for the mortality rates, but it does not affect the number of infections. And the number of infections is still going up at a rapid pace in Italy and Spain, despite over 2 weeks of shutdown. Yes, the curve is starting to flatten a bit, but not quick enough. These countries wont be able to (economically) survive 3 months of such a total shutdown (which btw is much stricter than in the US or Northern Europe), but the current curve indicates that that's how long it would take for them to get the infection numbers under control.

Quote (ZapFrog @ Mar 24 2020 09:42pm)

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

i've been using this tracker

Quote (Ghot @ Mar 24 2020 06:38pm)

FYI

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/



https://i.imgur.com/YDH6lYB.png










/e This is a much nicer one.

Quote (Ghot @ 25 Mar 2020 02:38)

FYI
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
https://i.imgur.com/YDH6lYB.png
/e This is a much nicer one.

Quote (addone @ Mar 24 2020 10:44pm)

So what's the plan after lock down? Can't isolate forever. Imo just flushing money down the toilet and putting people out of work is just not smart