@thor:
ok, my little burn might have put you off, sry about that. but in all seriousness, I would actually really appreciate your opinion on what I wrote in my previous post:
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Quote (Thor)
Trump had a cosmic coincidence. With how demographics are shaping up they better enjoy it while it lasts, because they've only got two or three more cycles before it becomes a mathematical impossibility to hold the executive.
only if the current allegiances and demographic trends continue into the future. if the GOP can hold onto its "Trump-margins" with white working class people, they can hang onto electoral college victories into the 2030s - according not to me, but to a study by the center for american progress, the brookings institute, the bipartisan policy center and the prri:
https://bipartisanpolicy.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/States-of-Change-Americas-Electoral-Future.pdfand if the GOP can make even slight inroads among minorities, things are looking entirely different anyway. for example, asians (and not latinos) have been the largest-growing group of immigrants in recent years, and they tend to be more conservative overall than either latinos or blacks, even though they (of course...) still support dems at a higher rate than the gop. but the margin the dems are getting out of asian americans is smaller.
and there are also signs that 3rd-generation latinos, like any group of immigrants before them, is drifting towards conservatism and away from the democrats.
in any case, the notion that the democrats dont have to change anything about their current agenda, that they just have to wait until demographic change hands them everything effortlessly, is completely delusional. it might play out like that, yes, but betting on it is incredibly risky.
This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Jun 12 2018 08:17am
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