Thanks for the anecdotal evidence, chief, however the fact remains that the majority of people did in fact pay less.

yeah lmao like anyone should feel sorry that “duhcrossbones” and his pale pasty privileged lefty family had to ‘pay more in taxes’. probably didn’t bother to adjust their withholding

tax cut tl'dr:

if you wrote of mileage you got fucked raw, if you're lower middle class you got a roll of quarters off, if you were rich it was a windfall, if you're a corporation money printer go brrrrrr

It's been roughly two weeks and we just got a set of high quality swing state polls from the NY Times/Siena College. All convention bounces should be gone (or by now permanent) and I think we're stuck here until the first debate. 2 weeks ago was peak Biden (9.1 nationally) and now we've settled to +7.6 nationally. Looking at the trends, Biden has settled around 50-51% of the popular vote which is where he's been since June. Trump, on the other hand, seems to have gotten a permanent 2% boost since the convention and he's hovering around 43%. That leaves about 6% undecided nationally and to be honest, I have no idea WHERE those undecideds are. For Trump, he needs these people to be in swing states AND for them to break towards him. That happened in 2016 by a pretty significant margin but that's really unlikely to happen now since Trump is the incumbent and undecideds usually skew towards the challenger.

AZ: Biden +5.0, was +4.3. Still a lot of variance here. Some polls have the race within the margin of error whereas others show this as a blowout. Biden is very close to 50% here and if that happens, Trump has zero chance of winning this state. It seems like undecideds are breaking more for Biden than Trump.
FL: Biden +2.7, was +5.6. THIS is the race we've been looking for! Trump basically NEEDS Florida and the race has tightened considerably. Biden is still ahead but he's no longer at 50% and a lot of Floridans (mainly Cubans & Venezuelans) have come home to Trump. From a resource perspective, I imagine that Trump will outspend Biden considerably due to the fact that Trump's path to victory is virtually non-existent without FL. I expect this state to go from lean Dem to toss up in my next map.
GA: Trump +1.5, was Trump +0.4. Polls indicate that this race is dead even still. Get out to vote efforts in this state will be insane.
IA: Trump + 1.6, was Trump +1.0. Only one poll here (Trump +2). I expect the Dems to put a lot of money here to try and get rid of Joni Ernst. Who will be riding whose coattails here?
ME-2: Biden +1.0. This is a new addition here. Maine and Nebraska give their electoral votes based on Congressional District winner (2 EVs will go to the winner state-wide). Trump won this in 2016 and it used to lean Trump but it's a toss-up now. For Trump, every EV matters because if there's a EV tie, he will win.
MI: Biden +7.6, was +7.3. Trump has pulled his resources from the state. While the race tightened a bit, Biden is still polling above 50% in this state so the campaign will focus on AZ instead most likely. Lightning doesn't strike twice.
MN: Biden +6.4, was +5.7. I'm not sure what's happening here. The race clearly tightened at one point but recent polling shows Trump plummeting here. I think the narrative that "suburbs will shift heavily towards Trump due to rioting" was a false one. Perhaps local news does a better job at covering what's actually going on?
NV: Biden +5.9, was +7.9. 2 new polls in a state that's notoriously difficult to poll. This is inching towards the lean Dem category.
NH: Biden +6.9, was +9.1. NY Times poll had this as Biden +3 which explains the drop. They believe that this specific state poll might not be their best for a number of reasons that are unnecessary at this time. At the end of the day, this state needs more polling.
NC: Biden +1.4, was +1.8. Only 1 new poll here but this is obviously terrible news for Trump. For the nerds, this is a pretty interesting article: http://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/states-of-play-north-carolina/
OH: Trump +0.9, was Trump +0.3. This is probably safe-ish for Trump but the polling has been strange here. I'm not convinced that Biden should spend much resources here since he doesn't need the state. I suppose he could influence the eastern Ohio TV market since Biden will campaign a lot in PA.
PA: Biden +5.1, was +5.8. Not much to say here. Biden's polling is remarkably steady (near 50%) and Trump seems to have settled at 45%. This isn't a must-win like Florida but it seems to be the most likely tipping point state. If Biden wins this, everything else is icing on the cake and likewise for Trump. Expect Ghot to listen to Trump and commit voting fraud.
TX: Trump +0.8, was Trump +0.9. Still a toss-up. I still think that Biden shouldn't campaign here (especially since Cornyn polls ahead of Trump). However, maybe Biden should spend a little bit here in order to force Trump/RNC to outspend him considerably.
WI: Biden +6.5, was Trump +6.2. Kenosha seems to have had ZERO effect on polling. As Pollster would say, "the narrative was fantasy-land fucking bullshit." Similar to PA, Biden is steadily between 49-51%.

Updated map: https://www.270towin.com/maps/Nnr3p

This post was edited by thundercock on Sep 12 2020 04:16pm

Thanks for the update, much appreciated!

Biden's consistency in the polls and the fact that he's at or slightly above 50% in a lot of them makes me think that Trump cannot win this race if he doesnt either win the first debate decisively, or there is a systemic polling error in his favor.

As things stand right now, I expect Trump to hold Iowa, Ohio and Texas with relative ease and to eke out a narrow victory in Florida, Georgia and North Carolina. Then, it comes down to Arizona, Pennsylvania and, to a lesser extent, WI, MN, MI, NH and NV. Biden's lead in all those states seems solid enough to withstand even a ~2-3% polling error in Trump's favor.

Btw, what about NE-2? Should that district also be in play; I would assume "tilt D" atm?

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Sep 12 2020 04:27pm

NE-2 hasn't been polled much but it's pretty strongly Biden from what I've seen: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/nebraska/2/

If there's more polling and it starts to tighten a bit, I'll add it just like I did to Minnesota. Montana is also under 10 points and they have an extremely important Senate race. I considered adding Montana but it's REALLY unimportant electorally speaking (if Montana goes Biden, Trump probably lost Texas too). https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/montana/

Polls are a thing of the past. They no longer have any correlation to real world results given the mass campaigns of cancel culture and censorship.

Both previous polls of NE-2 seem to have been internals from over 2 months ago, so yeah...

But considering the urban-suburban makeup of the district, I would assume it to be Biden-leaning in a Biden+7.6 national environment.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/13/politics/michael-bloomberg-florida-trump/index.html

Bloomberg planning on spending at least 100 mil in Florida for Biden.

Will it make any difference? Florida is at the level of ad saturation by default, and ground operations are generally flush with cash too.