Yeah, thats how % chance work.

that's true, but he got famous and rich from calling two of the most obvious elections in modern history. getting this year or 2016 pretty close to correct is much more impressive

Honestly, what's more surprising to me is that the NYT needle now shows GA to tilt strongly toward Trump, and predicts the final vote margin to be R+5. I would have predicted a far worse performance for Republicans in that state.
It's an early prediction based on just 15% of the estimated votes, but still...

It would validate choosing Biden, for sure. He polled strongest in the rust belt of all of the Dem contenders.

Nate Silver is a genius statistician and the nostradamus of our times. His predictions are accurate and unfailing and have never been wrong.

Florida called for Trump by DecisionDesk.

BUILD THE SEA WALL!

Are you wearing your helmet ?

Trafalgar's final FL poll: https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/fl-pres-102920/

Trump 49.6
Biden 46.9
Jorgensen 1.5
Other 1.4
No opinion 0.7

It speaks to how hard Trump support specifically is to poll than anything else imo.

i think their election site is incredible. I have their site up on monitor, Reuters on another, and faux biz (lame, but better than the other major networks and their affiliates) on the tv