Quote (Black XistenZ @ Nov 14 2022 11:26pm)
I agree when it comes to candidate quality being a huge factor in 2022 (Democrats also blew their chances in races like WI Sen and OR-5 by running weak candidates; DeSantis doesn't win by 20 if he's running against a better opponent than Charlie Crist). What this election also reinforces, however, is this idea that "Trump's base is not enough". It wasn't in 2018, it wasn't in 2020 and it now again wasn't in various pivotal races in the 2022 cycle. Divisive candidates like Kari Lake just have a low ceiling that isn't good enough to win in purple states, or at the presidential level for that matter.
Moderate or generic canddiates like Laxalt or Oz also fell short, so it's not necessarily just a problem with MAGA-candidates; there were deeper, structural issues at play which the GOP needs to fix asap. Still, in terms of electoral math, there just isn't a path forward for the GOP without broadening their appeal. This does not automatically have to imply pivoting to the center. DeSantis himself is an example of someone who has quite hardline conservative policies, but was able to retain a crucial degree of crossover appeal and managed to not become too polarizing.
I would say that it's coalition driven rather than base driven. Trump's coalition sacrifices suburban votes in order to turn out the rural, non-college, and blue collar blocs. That's great in certain places, but it's not great in Arizona. Nevada was blue before Trump, and Republicans are making gains, the caveat being that it will take time. Same for South Texas, Republicans weren't ready to flip those seats, but they increased their margins by 5+ points on the whole and need to keep pushing forward.
Which leads us to the second point, I agree with respect to DeSantis. Pivoting to the "center" in most circles means returning to the 2012 electoral map that had Democrats giddy about a permanent electoral majority. That's categorically the wrong move. The question is whether suburban voters are turned off by Trump or his putative policies. I say the former. A more conventional candidate will make inroads with the suburbs, and a more populist, nationalist socio-economic bent will continue to make inroads among the constituencies Trump performed well in. Trump himself is not required, he made himself so toxic that all anyone thinks about is the conspiracies and addled rants. The incredible challenge is going to be sidelining him without allowing him to destro the party. He'll certainly try.