Taiwan is a core issue for China. For the United States it is a peripheral issue.
The only reason why a war will get triggered comes mainly from the USA.
There are good reasons to trigger it, they want a similar situation to happen to China like how it did to Russia.
And militarily, USA can really test out how far the Chinese have advanced to gauge their competence without losing their precious lives.

The USA will probably fight till every last Taiwanese and Japanese just to slow down China's development for at least 30 to 40 years.

Personally i think taiwan will be absorbed slowly, i think the sword-rattling isn't really gonna play out. I could be wrong though

Also no japanese is gonna die for taiwan, that take is a bit silly, but otherwise i agree with you

This post was edited by ownyaah on Jul 29 2022 12:15pm

Part of the Reason why Pelosi is going or wanting to go to Taiwan is because she will not continue as her current role anymore.
Furthermore there is a chance that Democrats will lose the House and Senate.

So she needs to go on a world tour and go out with a bang.
Throughout her time in politics in the United States, she is very very anti china. For a woman she does have some balls so as to speak.

She did this in China 31 years ago on China's soil.
If she does goes to Taiwan, this will seal her legacy.

And if she does goes to Taiwan this coming month, it will trigger some sort of reaction from China.

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/07/28/pelosi-china-taiwan-00048352

As for the Japanese part, the government have already put pressure on themselves that they will help. If they don't , it will look really bad.

Taiwan is a core issue for both the United States and Japan. The loss of Taiwan cuts through the first island chain, which threatens America's ability to come to the defense of Japan, and puts both Okinawa and the Japanese home islands at risk. It would simultaneously allow China unrestricted access to the Pacific, and threaten America's access to the same. Given the enormous economic and strategic importance of both Japan and Pacific trade, the United States is not in a position where it feels that it can allow that to happen. For its part, Japan cannot risk losing Taiwan, as it jeopardizes national security, both directly and indirectly through economic blockade.

If a conflict were to break out tomorrow, Chinese nationalism will probably be the reason why. The CCP needed Han nationalism to replace defunct communist ideology, but it's a fire that's easier to start than to put out.



The multi-decade trend has been pro-independence. The Taiwanese increasingly see themselves as belonging to a different nationality, and this trend is likely to continue as the old guard continue to die out. Unsurprisingly, CCP totalitarianism doesn't look so great from the outside.

China would certainly defeat Taiwan in an armed conflict, but seizing the island would represent the largest naval invasion in history, and almost certainly involve the immediate intercession of both the Americans and the Japanese on the side of Taiwan. The voices calling for armed NATO intervention in Ukraine, a country of very limited significance to world affairs, the invasion of Taiwan would be seismic in scope.

This post was edited by bogie160 on Jul 29 2022 12:52pm

I take some of the comments my late Prime Minister say on the world stage quite a fair bit.

Scroll to 11.20 if you want to hear about his views on Taiwan and China.




This post was edited by Hamsterbaby on Jul 29 2022 12:55pm

People seriously underestimate how difficult it is to invade an island in the modern age. It would be a complete nightmare for China and considering Taiwan would expect and has prepared for an amphibious type invasion for decades, China would legit lose hundreds of thousands of troops.

They will choke out Taiwan economically and eventually force them into the fold imo.

I can say with 90% certainty that China will not invade Taiwan mainland. Not going to happen.

By the Way, I think Pelosi will visit Taiwan, for a couple of hours but not stay over night.

This post was edited by Hamsterbaby on Jul 29 2022 01:09pm

LKY is probably the single most talented leader of the 20th century, but in this case the material circumstances have changed. The rapprochement that began with Nixon has ended. The Chinese economy is slowing, the signs of which predate the pandemic. The tech sector is being clamped down on, and a gargantuan property bubble is roiling beneath the surface. In 2013, it was a fait accompli that the Chinese economy would eventually (and quickly) surpass that of the United States. That's no longer the case. The Chinese demographic crisis creates a window of opportunity in which China must act, and the question is whether their economic and military capabilities will be sufficient to act before that window closes.

FUCK CHINA

Yu no rike crab rangoon?