That explains district 12, but not the ridiculous lines of the other districts. The VRA does not explain why the lines between the two blue and the yellow districts look like a Rorschach test.



My proposed approach actually does just that: it factors in the self-packing and disparate population distributions in a state and measures metrics of partisan skew against this state-specific baseline skew which exists naturally. If you think it's fundamentally impossible to come up with sensible methodology that proves the maps in, e.g., Ohio or Illinois to be bullshit, you are plain wrong.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Jan 18 2022 11:53am

I believe those requirements are promulgated state by state.

You can honestly miss me with this shit. How many elections has this childish line drawing actually had a large impact on?

Honestly should just start drawing penises tbh.

weird hobbies you have.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections

Without gerrymandering, Obama would have had another 2 years of trifecta control in 2013 and 2014.

Since my last post, there's been quite a bit of news:
Alabama: SCOTUS stepped in and allowed the 7-1 map to stay until they can review the case as a whole. Many believe that this will be the final nail in the coffin for the VRA.
Connecticut: The Connecticut Supreme Court approved the 3-0-2 map. There's basically no change from the previous map.
Florida: There's been a lot of news regarding Florida and the Florida Supreme Court rejected DeSantis' request. It seems that the Florida legislature is more interested in coming up with a reasonable map as opposed to the insane gerrymander that DeSantis wants. Wasserman expects Florida to end up with a 18R-10D map (up from the current 16R-11D now).
Kansas: The map is official and the swing district could swing GOP in a really good GOP year. The district went from Biden +11 to Biden +5.
Kentucky: The map is official because the GOP legislature overrode the Governor's veto. There's no change here and we have have a 5R-1D composition.
Mississippi: They approved the map and it's 3R-1D.
Missouri: Right now, Missouri is a mess because hardliners really want a 7R-1D map but a 6R-2D is more likely. One of the districts in question is pink/red as opposed to ruby red. To placate the hardliners, they might make the pink district ruby red so that the Democrats have zero chance of ever winning it.
New York: This is a big win for Democrats now that the map is official. It's not as bad as it could have been for the GOP, but it's pretty bad. The new map is 20-2-4 which is a pretty substantial difference from the old 17-4-7 map.
North Carolina: The most gerrymandered proposal got thrown out by the NC Supreme Court. The new map must be "fair" from a partisan standpoint according to the Court so things could get really interesting here.
Pennsylvania: The Supreme Court should rule on the proposals in the coming days. Wasserman is expecting a 9D-8R map with 5 competitive seats. Currently it's a 10R-8D map with 3 competitive districts.
South Carolina: The map is official now. It's a 6R-1D map which doesn't change anything.
Tennessee: Nashville got carved up as expected so the Dems lost a district. Litigation should be expected but I doubt anything will come of it due to the SCOTUS decision re: Alabama. The final map is 8R-1D.

There are only 9 states left that need to make their maps official: Florida, Louisiana, Missouri, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and Wisconsin. The sum of all the remaining districts should have a net change in favor of the Democrats given that North Carolina and Ohio aren't going to be as gerrymandered. Overall, the Democrats have gained a little over 10 districts but that does NOT mean that they are going to keep the House. With the expected bloodbath, Democrats are simply mitigating their losses.

No offense, but I think your bias is subconsciously showing here. The Dem gerrymander in NY is every bit as "insane" as the one on DeSantis' proposed map, if not even worse. For example, look at the "toilet flush" seat that they came up with to flip the naturally R-leaning Staten Island seat:


https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2022/02/03/ny-redistrict-new-york-state-legislature-passes-congressional-map/
It's an interesting read, particularly how they jumbled the lines within their own strongholds to protect Carolyn Maloney from a progressive primary challenger (she almost lost renomination in 2020) and to protect AOC from a moderate challenger.





It should be mentioned that the state Supreme Courts in both NC and PA are controlled by Democrats and that both courts have been openly partisan in comparable litigation in the past.



Imho, this redistricting cycle seems to have gone far better for Democrats than many thought. It mostly comes down to their aggressive gerrymanders in NY and IL going through without much resistance while many of the aggressive GOP gerrymanders in population-heavy states got stuck in court, like NC/OH/FL. The GOP also left a lot of easy pickup opportunities on the table, like going for 7-2 in Indiana instead of 8-1, or leaving a D-leaning or tossup seat in Kansas and Nebraska which could have easily been nuked. However, the Texas GOP was very smart imho in going for a map that acknowledges the rising floor for Democrats in the state and tries to enshrine their current advantage rather than getting greedy and producing lots of dummymanders.

This outcome (Dems doing better than expected) is, of course, a product of the GOP gerrymanders after 2010. The GOP had already exhausted more of its gerrymandering potential going into this redistricting cycle than Dems.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Feb 16 2022 06:02am

100%, Madison and Milwaukee will go blue, the rest is hardly even purple, although the fox valley does have some pockets of fairly blue spots around Green Bay and Appleton, just nowhere near the other two areas' levels.

textbook bothsidesism when i know for a FACT that even a brainwashed hack like you is well aware that gerrymandering is overall overwhelmingly done by and thus in favour of republicans. pointing to exceptions won't change that.

redistricting / gerrymandering, the electoral college, and systematic voter suppression are all tools to keep a dying party competitive. if the US had a modern, democratic voting system, like its european peers, republicans would be largely irrelevant, because their "ideas" are shit and unpopular amongst the majority of the population.

https://www.businessinsider.com/partisan-gerrymandering-has-benefited-republicans-more-than-democrats-2017-6

Republicans were the "aggressor" in the 2010 redistricing cycle, sure. I'll give you that. Historically and also during the 2020 cycle, Democrats are just as happy to exploit gerrymandering to their advantage as the GOP.

Look again at this beauty of a map which was passed by the Democratic state legislature in NC in 1993:



Or look at the map Maryland has passed for the 2021-2030 decade, including good ol' "bridge-contiguity":


The rest is just your usual drivel.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Feb 16 2022 09:41am