Quote (xJukEx @ 16 Oct 2021 18:27)
Do you even know wtf a Vaccine is
Quote (EndlessSky @ 16 Oct 2021 19:42)
In order to compare the death rates of two populations of different size, you have to transform the discrete numbers of events into marginal rate probabilities.
To calculate how much of the covid risk the vaccines have taken away from a population at any given point, we obviously have to weight each individual with his or her risk of dying from it if exposed while unprotected.
As a crude first estimate, factor in age, so that a 20 year old gets a weight of, idc, 0.0001, an 75 year old gets a weight of 0.12, a 90 year old gets 0.25, and so on.
Then sum up these values for the already vaccinated population, which skews old, divide it by the corresponding sum for the entire population and you get the share of the risk-weighted population which is already protected by the vaccines. If the nominal vaccination rate is 80% of adults, but the vaccinations skew older, then the vaccines will in fact protect well over 90% of the risk-weighted population. Without vaccines, we would expect this group to account for (well over) 90% of covid deaths while we would expect the remaining 10% to account for 10% of the deaths (instead of their actual share of 30%).
This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Oct 16 2021 11:37pm