Quote (InsaneBobb @ 25 Apr 2021 22:09)
Didn't the last California Governor recall result in the Governator gaining the seat? Genuinely curious why you think the left has a better shot than the right on this one. Recalls are a shaky thing, because it's just two questions. Should he be recalled, and if over 50% vote yes, then who should take his spot with a list of names that can be hundreds long. The name recognition factor may very well weigh very heavily in Jenner's favor. On the flipside, if it's a massively watered down field, it'd very likely weigh heavily against "real politicians" that the majority have never heard of.
The Democratic incumbent back in 2003 was significantly more unpopular than Newsom is today. And California was a significantly more light-to-medium blue state compared with it's present, deep-blue hue.
If I had to put numbers to it:
chance for the recall to go through: 40%
chance for the Republican to win if there is a recall election: 25%.
So all in all, I would say there's a 60% chance that Newsom remains governor, 30% chance for a more leftist Dem succeeding him, and a 10% chance for a Republican to follow the footsteps of the Governator.
This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Apr 25 2021 03:04pm