if i buy at x and they go to x + 10 and i sell, as a shareholder i got value my friend

*LAUGH OUT LOUD*

I don't disagree with this but reality is this isn't some market secret. This is priced in imo, and their current price reflects this reality. Some of these dropped like 30-40% over the last two months so it's not as if analysts woke up this morning and had an epiphany on the dynamics of the industry.

Maybe i'm wrong but are two or three quarterly cash flows being down lets say by 50% enough to discount the price by 30+%?

This post was edited by ofthevoid on Mar 9 2020 04:01pm

Don't get me wrong, I respect the bold play. I look at NPVs over the long run so yeah 2-3 quarters isn't a big impact on long term cash flows but the risk in never realising future cash flows would concern me, as would their EV. My argument would be that in light of their precarious cash positions and gearing, the price of airline stocks should decrease by more than other industries if there isn't a reasonable expectation it would be business as usual for the year, as it accurately represents the risk.

Sold the calls too early for only like 20% gains when if i would of just held it would of been 100%. Always sell too early because looking to lock in gains and feel like an idiot now.

Look at American Airlines today. It exploded higher for like 13%. Like i said sometimes so much is baked in that even the slight whiff of good news sends these stocks parabolic

This post was edited by ofthevoid on Mar 10 2020 12:41pm

Curious, what do you think about buying shale producers here? For example company like OXY. From the signals, it's starting to look like our government will step in to save them if anything. I also don't think SA or Russia really wants oil prices trading here, i think they'll come to an understanding sooner rather than later.

I would advise against it. Russia and SA are unpredictable, and if you're looking at long-term investment, shale producers are at big risk if Democrats win in Nov because of the coming climate bills (Green New Deal or something similar).

Calls/Puts i trade, i don't ever hold to maturity. My logic is the same as the airlines, i'm not going to sit and wait for a resolution, it's just the fact that the sky fell for these stocks and everyone is trading them like they are going bankrupt. All it would take for SA and Russia to say we are sitting down for talks and oil would spike back to 40. I also don't see how Trump would let our oil industry fail. One of his central points is American independents in energy. I would be astounded if in 9 months oil isn't trading at 40+ again or Trump is giving them billions in bailouts.

This helps your market shares so its GOOD.
Mad about food stamps im sure.
Doesn't understand those Co.'s have billions in savings..they wont spend because they know gov't will bail them out. But fine for us to all foot the bill right?
typical

I mean the prices are artificially low so you’re fine to buy them. That being said, oil is on the way out. Electric is the future and oil is going to be way too high on supply. I think you’re about to see a ton of small cap oil producers absolutely shut down. I’d steer clear of oil for the long term, but you may get short term pops like you did with these companies in 2016