Quote (djman72 @ 7 Feb 2020 16:17)
I'm beginning to think that the democrats do not want to actually win the election in 2020.
if it werent for the judges, this would actually make sense. Trump is a shitty leader for his brand of politics, he's only playing to his base and never expanding his coalition. he's actively alienating a part of the electorate, he's putting states like texas and arizona in play a good 4-8 years earlier than they would have been under a cookie cutter republican president. he's erratic, constantly tripping over his own feet. if he gets another 4 years, there is a chance that he does finally commit the fatal mistake they've been waiting for, the one that sticks and erodes his approval ratings long-term.
however, another trump term would come with a supreme court and a federal judiciary which are so conservative that even liberal legislation passed with trifecta control in DC would get stopped in the courts. the conservative judiciary would become so entrenched that it would take multiple democratic presidents to undo. if not for the judges, another Trump term might really be good for Democrats from a very strategical, long-term point of view.
another complicating factor, however, is that the super skewed Senate class comes up for election again in 2024. even if a second Trump term turns out disastrous and the Dems win back the WH and Congress with ease in 2024, they might still fall short to win back or hold the Senate that year. hence, their best shot at trifecta control is probably 2020, where if they have good turnout and/or margins with key demos, they would have a good shot at winning both the Senate and the WH.
so yeah, after thinking it through, if I were a Democratic strategist, I would go all-in for 2020.
This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Feb 7 2020 09:41am