Quote (thundercock @ 4 Feb 2020 02:19)
If Bernie gets 20%, Warren and Pete get 18%, and Biden gets 15%, do you really think he should drop out? I think if Black's scenario occurs (Biden under 15% statewide) then that's a MAJOR problem for his campaign.
Agreed.
If he's at 15+% and within 5% of the winner, he should be fine. Iowa is a bad fit for him anyway.
But trailing the winner by 9% and winning almost no delegates due to staying below the 15% threshold would be a disaster for him.
But you're right that it's just one poll, even if it's from a pollster which is widely regarded as one of the best in the country (Seltzer & Co); and other polls were more favorable for Biden.