Quote (IceMage @ Sep 11 2019 08:42am)
For those in favor of leaving Afghanistan, and maybe other countries where we're fighting extremist groups... do you believe there will be no consequences? Or do you accept that there's a tradeoff, that it will allow terrorist groups to have more free reign to plan attacks, and perhaps even seize more territory in those countries, but it's still worth it to pull out?
The populist opinion seems to be that the war on terror isn't really worth fighting anymore. I don't agree with that at all.
I think the error of the calculation is assuming that our presence is degrading the ability of terrorists to stage attacks more than the non-occupation scenario, and undervaluing our ability to degrade their forces with aerial bombing alone.
The vast majority of terrorist attacks over the past 20 years has been from home-grown terrorists, whether its long established white nationalists or second generation sons of muslim immigrants or whatever. 9/11 is an abberation to that, with foreign terrorists traveling just to get us. And frankly, our ability to stop foreign terrorists was never really influenced by afghanistan. So what if we can destroy a 'terrorist training camp'? A terrorist can train himself entirely online. We just got better security at airports and borders, and now we're a fortress of a country both in intercepting extremists and preventing them from flying here, as well as beefing up our vulnerable targets to stop the next hijacking. That's what has prevented a repeat of 9/11, not boots on the ground in afghanistan. But when we look at domestic terrorists and self-radicalization, the invasions have been either making it worse or doing nothing to help. Widespread support for ISIS exists among Sunni populations in the mideast and the emigrants overseas, and that's led to plenty of shootings, stabbings, bombings, truck ramming attacks, etc. Afghanistan was a backwater pisspot. For every person who learned to built bombs in Afghanistan, there were a dozen more across the rest of the developed mideast who would gladly
use bombs against America if they got the chance, and could learn how to build them in 2 hours of google searching. Even if we left Afghanistan with no "keep Al Qaeda out" deal with the Taliban, and they set up camps again- we could simply bomb them with impunity, like how we just blew up an island held by ISIS literally called "Qanus", which I just want to post 5 more times: Qanus, Qanus, Qanus, Qanus, Qanus
The only real threat of a US pullout to Afghanistan/Iraq/Syria is their internal problems and whether extremists can take over control. Besides the threat posed by ISIS encouraging terrorism elsewhere, our stewardship of the globe doesn't let us simply abide a humanitarian crisis. Europe took that to the cucked level and let them all in as refugees which was fucking stupid, but even without slitting our own wrists to show our bleeding hearts, we're still going to be responsible for intervening in some fashion. So the real consequences we have to weigh is what will happen to the coalition government of Afghanistan and whether the country can be held together with diplomacy or devolve into civil war the moment we leave.