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Feb 26 2013 10:13am
Does Pew list the questions they ask for the polls? Just out of curiosity.
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Feb 26 2013 11:10am
Quote (JayKwik @ Feb 26 2013 10:02am)
This is a common exaggeration, but it's something that hasn't been true for a number of years. Though even as methodology has improved an important part of poll evaluation remains the meticulous review of full polling briefings. Even if we know the methods have gotten better, people still have to evaluate each and every poll that's commissioned and study each element of its methodology, and when questions are not asked in a satisfactory manner then the results pretty much have to be ignored. What you're complaining about is the first thing that serious analysts look for during poll evaluation, especially if they're developing summaries or aggregates. Poll questions are no longer of "Why did you kill your wife?" variety. Unfortunately there are some firms that still have not caught up to the new standard, but for the most part people know who they are and don't consult them for serious data.

I would't care if you "tl;dr" my posts, you've shown no interest in substantively addressing them with evidenced-based assertions so I wouldn't think anything of it or take offense to it if you just refused to reply to what's written in them. I'm going to get back to poll-related discussion: You're right that the NRA et al. has already turned their attention to making the public aware of what registrations are through Wayne LaPierre's amusing press conferences, and the public has both laughed him off the stage and thoroughly rejected the NRA's premise that the registry that powers universal background check is just the first step that inevitably leads to a "gun grab." This is exactly the type of crap that led to their 10-point unfavorable swing that I posted in an earlier post, and it's put their numbers underwater because people just don't buy it.


Not "inevitably," it just means the danger exists. And if you don't believe me, look nofarther than the fucking gun grab in New York. And if you wanted substantive discussions, perhaps some substance yourself?
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Feb 26 2013 03:37pm
Quote (guywhosebrother @ Feb 26 2013 12:13pm)
Does Pew list the questions they ask for the polls? Just out of curiosity.


Yes, but you usually have to find the full PDFs to read their questions instead of just relying on the summaries they provide for their topline findings. Here's an example of what they do: http://www.people-press.org/files/legacy-questionnaires/01-31-13%20topline%20for%20release.pdf

They have an interesting way of releasing their content, which can make it frustrating when relying on a summary just won't do and you really want to see everything.

Quote (Santara @ Feb 26 2013 01:10pm)
Not "inevitably," it just means the danger exists. And if you don't believe me, look nofarther than the fucking gun grab in New York. And if you wanted substantive discussions, perhaps some substance yourself?


Wayne LaPierre and the NRA has defined universal background checks as policy that leads to the inevitable confescation of firearms. He isn't interested in debating policy progression, he has directly argued through his press conferences that if representatives support universal background checks they are supporting policy that will cause their citizens to have their guns taken away. There's nothing factual to back that up. He as a spokesperson of that organization is embracing a survivalist conspiracy theory that the government is going to create this database with purpose in mind to learn the location of firearms so that they can swoop in and take them away. This is absurd. The elecorate wants universal backgrounds checks and the gun registry. Anti-reform advocates don't have any valid excuses as to why the majority will should not be reflected, and they didn't have any in the first place as far as I'm concerned.

Seeing as how I usually have to just continue to recycle the same evidenced-based arguments that you've ignored dozens of times every time you go into one of your mindless "well hurr durr, the Democrats still refuse to cut spending!!11" replies, I'm not really sure how I'd be better served by introducing any additional assertions into a discussion. You can continue to ignore legislative realities if you need to make yourself feel better, and it sure looks like you do that an awful lot, but that just creates an impasse that can't be resolved just by me posting any other empiracle findings. Long story short: if you're just going to continue to ignore them because you don't like them, what's the point?
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Feb 26 2013 05:16pm
Because there's no way that government would ever try to confiscate weapons once they knew where they were. Never.

Oh, wait...... http://www.mercurynews.com/breaking-news/ci_22544460/californias-state-senate-democrats-roll-out-big-gun
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Feb 26 2013 05:51pm
Quote (JayKwik @ Feb 26 2013 03:37pm)
Wayne LaPierre and the NRA has defined universal background checks as policy that leads to the inevitable confescation of firearms. He isn't interested in debating policy progression, he has directly argued through his press conferences that if representatives support universal background checks they are supporting policy that will cause their citizens to have their guns taken away. There's nothing factual to back that up. He as a spokesperson of that organization is embracing a survivalist conspiracy theory that the government is going to create this database with purpose in mind to learn the location of firearms so that they can swoop in and take them away. This is absurd. The elecorate wants universal backgrounds checks and the gun registry. Anti-reform advocates don't have any valid excuses as to why the majority will should not be reflected, and they didn't have any in the first place as far as I'm concerned.

Seeing as how I usually have to just continue to recycle the same evidenced-based arguments that you've ignored dozens of times every time you go into one of your mindless "well hurr durr, the Democrats still refuse to cut spending!!11" replies, I'm not really sure how I'd be better served by introducing any additional assertions into a discussion. You can continue to ignore legislative realities if you need to make yourself feel better, and it sure looks like you do that an awful lot, but that just creates an impasse that can't be resolved just by me posting any other empiracle findings. Long story short: if you're just going to continue to ignore them because you don't like them, what's the point?


I wouldn't debate "policy progression" either. There are no compromises needed when protecting our rights. nn gun grabbing by baby steps. A registry allows for confiscation, and they are already going for confiscation of many guns now. It isn't a scare tactic, it is happening in real life. THAT is factual. It ISN'T absurd. If 90% of the electorate wanted to reinstate Jim Crow laws, I'd oppose that too. And I'd be right to do so, like I am now. The people who DON'T have valid excuses are the ones on the gun control side of the aisle.

Opinion-based, with data supporting, just like I do. Political disagreement stems from the placement of value. There isn't so much a "you are wrong and I am right," there is "here's why I think I am right" countered by "here's why I think I am right." The fact that you splutter on and on about "hurr durr ________" like you incessantly do implies you are ignorant of this.
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Feb 27 2013 04:07pm
It was a pretty big polling day, a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll dropped it's toplines right at the same time as Pew released it's full briefing, and then WSJ/NBC came back and released it's full packet.

Top lines first: approval ratings, favorability, the state of the country
Obama's approval rating is 50%-45% (-2 since last poll). His handling of the economy is 44%-51% (-4 since last poll), putting it back to August 2012 levels.
Obama's agenda however receives broad support on every key issue. 54% support offering legal status for undocumented immigrants (+2 increase), 61% believe firearm laws should be more strict (+5 increase). Support for the minimum wage increase is 58%-36%.
GOP Favorability is 29%-46%. Only 8% of respondents view the Republican party as "very positive," less than half of respondents that view the Democratic party the same over time.
Obama's favorability is 49%, and the Democratic party weighs in at 41%.
When asked if they agree or disagree with "most" of what each do, Obama sits at 45%-46%, Congressional Democrats sit at 40%-46%, Congressional Republicans sit at 29%-57%.
The "total agree" or "total disagree" numbers have Obama at 49%-48% and Congressional Republicans at 31%-58%.
Only 29% say they agree "with most" of what Congressional Republicans have proposed (45% feel the same about Obama, 40% feel the same about Congressional Democrats).
When asked if they are working towards unifying the country or just after partisan gain, Obama is at 48%-43%, while Republicans weigh in at 22%-64%.
32% believe the country is headed in the right direction (-3 since last month).


Polling before the upcoming Sequester PR war
52% say sequester is a horrible idea while 21% say it's good for the country.
53% want Congress to go through with sequester regardless if they like the deal, or find another plan with the same or more cuts in order to continue closing the deficit. 37% want a smaller-scale plan.
51% of people say the negotiations between Obama and Congressional Republicans make them feel less confident about the economy. 16% say the negotiations make them more confident.
50% say work together to avoid sequester, 46% say the cuts should go into effect.


Issue-based polling
The Democratic party continues to pound the Republicans on almost every single issue. They're +22 on looking out for the middle class, +18 on dealing with Medicare, +16 on dealing with healthcare, +15 on reducing gun violence, +14 on dealing with Social Security, +10 on energy policy, +7 in Immigration, +3 on taxes, and +2 on the economy. The issues where the GOP holds an edge are the token areas where the out-of-party power always leads: reducing the federal deficit (+6) and "controlling government spending" (+16). People still seem to favor them on "ensuring a strong national defense" (+26), but their lead continues to decrease.

WSJ/NBC asked which one or two issues, if any, do they think Congressional Republicans should compromise with Obama on to pass legislation: 36% said eliminating tax loopholes for the wealthy, 28% said expanding background checks, and 23% said improving children's access to preschool


Election polling
Chris Christie's favorability rating is 36%-12% (32% don't know)
Marco Rubio 24%-17% (39% don't know)


Other, random polling...
WSJ/NBC had a section pertaining to drones. 64% favor using drones, 12% oppose using drones, and 22% don't know enough about them.
42% want to continue the drone policy, 28% want it changed or modified in some way, and 29% don't know
When ask how they want it to change or be modified: 18% want the program expanded, 21% want to continue as is, 23% want it limited with more oversight, 4% want it stopped altogether


Pew Poll
Republican party out of touch (62% yes, 33% no), too extreme (52% yes, 42% no), open to change (39% yes, 56% no), strong principles (63% yes, 30% no), looks out for the country's future (45% yes, 50% no).
Democratic party out of touch (46% yes, 50% no), too extreme (39% yes, 56% no), open to change (58% yes, 38% no), strong principles (57% yes, 37% no), looks out for the country's future (51% yes, 45% no).
**That results in (R-16) on out of touch, (R-13) on too extreme, (R-19) on open to change, (R+6) on strong principles, and (R-6) on looking out for the future.
The GOP favorability in January dropped to 33%, and has not been above 50% since the reelection of George W. Bush in 2004.
Only 37% approve of Congressional Democratic leadership, 25% approve of their Republican counterparts.

Pew has discovered a new trend, that Republicans are growing more critical of their own party. That has been a contributor in the favorability of the party being the lowest it's been in two decades. Measuring where each party was at the last 4 inauguration days shows that while both parties have seen their favorability drop, the Republicans have seen their ratings drop twice as much as Democrats. In January 2001, Democrats had a 60% favorability and Republicans sat just below that at 56%. In January 2005, the Democrats had dropped to 53% but the Republicans dropped to 52%, still only barely behind. In January 2009, the Democrats had a surge in their favorability paired with Obama's inauguration and their rating increased to 60% while the Republicans saw their rating decrease further down to 40%. Democrats saw their favorability drop 15 points between Obama's first and second inaugurations putting it at 47% last month. Republicans saw their rating continue to drop as well, putting it at 33%. This means their favorability is only 2% higher than the all-time low in the party's history, which was reached in 1998 when they began the attempt to impeach Bill Clinton.

This post was edited by JayKwik on Feb 27 2013 04:10pm
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Feb 27 2013 04:36pm
thanks for the update/aggregation Jay ^_^

This post was edited by guywhosebrother on Feb 27 2013 04:36pm
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Feb 28 2013 12:10am
Quote (guywhosebrother @ Feb 27 2013 06:36pm)
thanks for the update/aggregation Jay  ^_^


february 28th breaking news update from CamBovenzi


JayKwik likes polls





no pun intended B)
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Feb 28 2013 01:55am
:hail:
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Feb 28 2013 08:10am
Quote
Issue-based polling
The Democratic party continues to pound the Republicans on almost every single issue. They're +22 on looking out for the middle class, +18 on dealing with Medicare, +16 on dealing with healthcare, +15 on reducing gun violence, +14 on dealing with Social Security, +10 on energy policy, +7 in Immigration, +3 on taxes, and +2 on the economy. The issues where the GOP holds an edge are the token areas where the out-of-party power always leads: reducing the federal deficit (+6) and "controlling government spending" (+16). People still seem to favor them on "ensuring a strong national defense" (+26), but their lead continues to decrease.

WSJ/NBC asked which one or two issues, if any, do they think Congressional Republicans should compromise with Obama on to pass legislation: 36% said eliminating tax loopholes for the wealthy, 28% said expanding background checks, and 23% said improving children's access to preschool


I wonder how it is that Democrats are "looking out for the middle class" aside from making sure they don't have to pay the bill for government.
I wonder how it is that Democrats are "dealing with Medicare" aside from nothing.
I wonder how it is that Democrats are "dealing with healthcare" aside from making sure nothing is stopping it from becoming exorbitantly more expensive.
I wonder how it is that Democrats are "reducing gun violence" at all.
I wonder how it is that Democrats are "dealing with Social Security" aside from nothing.
I wonder how it is that Democrats are "+10 on energy policy" by restricting access to energy and making it more expensive.
I wonder how it is that Democrats are "+7 in immigration" by pushing for open borders coupled with an unrestricted welfare state.
I don't wonder how it is that Democrats are "+3 on taxes" considering they are trying to make the cost of governing "someone else's problem" rather than the shared bill it ought to be.
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