Quote (bogie160 @ 13 Nov 2024 21:49)
There's only so much Nate can do with bad poll data. Poll aggregates have consistently understated Trump's support over the course of three presidential cycles. When polls signal a "dead heat" we're looking at a comfortable Trump win. The polling miss this time around wasn't nearly as bad as 2020, but either the models are off or left-wing radicalism has created an electorally significant constituency of people who lie to polls and turn out for vote Trump.
The funniest thing about it is that the polling averages did quite well and picked up most of the interesting stuff, conventional wisdom just didn't believe them.
"There's no chance that all battlegrounds are within 1-2% of each other" - with the exception of Arizona, they were.
"There's no chance the battlegrounds are within 1-2% of the national popular vote" - they were.
"If national polls show a dead heat, Trump will win very comfortably" - the tipping point state (PA) will end up less than one point to the right of the nation as a whole.
"These crosstabs make no sense. Hispanics zooming to the right while boomers move to the left? Has to be a statistical artifact or a bad poll" - oops, those trends did indeed materialize.
What was implied by the polls, but few people realized, is that the trend from 2022 of populous states (CA, NY, FL, IL) undergoing a dramatic right-shift, would continue or even accelerate in 2024. Absolutely nobody had Trump coming within 5.5 points in New Jersey or winning Texas by over 13% while still having to sweat Georgia or the blue wall states.
This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Nov 13 2024 11:05pm