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May 7 2024 08:29pm
Quote (Ghot @ May 7 2024 10:16pm)
I wanna see the automated software/robot that knows that when the oil filter has welded itself to the engine block because the oil hasn't been changed in ages... that knows that if the oil filter strap wrench can't remove it... you can drive a large screw driver all the way through both sides of the oil filter, and use the screw driver as a more positive contact wrench... to remove the oil filter.

Maybe the "Terminator" could do something like that. But that level of AI isn't gonna be here by 2034 or even 2134. ^^

Little tricks like that are "learned". You won't see them in any mechanic's tech manual.

You'd need to be able to "mind meld" with some old grey-haired mechanics, to learn that little trick. :D





I can see it now... any mechanics shops that are automated, will need to be called: Stripped Bolts-R-Us. :D


Modern computer neural networks do mimic living consciousness in their structure.

The only difference at this point is the scale (lack of processor speed/memory), and the organization of the network.

I think machines will be comparable with life in a slim majority of competencies within the next twenty years.
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May 7 2024 09:09pm
Quote (EndlessSky @ May 7 2024 10:29pm)
Modern computer neural networks do mimic living consciousness in their structure.



Yes they do... about as well as a crutch mimics a human leg. :-)


This is about as far along as we've come with free-range (no wires) robots.
Good thing all those boxes were handily located. ^^

I spent years working with and ON scaffolding. Two things...
1. I don't "forget" my tools.
2. I can just "climb" scaffolding, without boxes or ladders.







I don't think Michael Jordan or whoever the basketball player du jour is, has anything to worry about. :-)



Now... considering that flip at the end... maybe gymnasts have something to worry about. :D

This post was edited by Ghot on May 7 2024 09:23pm
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May 7 2024 09:18pm
Quote (EndlessSky @ May 7 2024 09:46pm)
It's definitely unpolitical, but this was a major point in the book Dune

At some point in the future, people thought it was a good idea to put a sentient AI in charge of the operations of a hospital on a major planet.

The AI worked very efficiently until the AI thought it was a good idea to sacrifice the life of the son of the planetary governor in favor of five other people due to scarce resources.

In response, the planetary governor started a political crusade to completely annihilate all sentient AI in the known universe.

If AI's start becoming CEO's, I think that will happen a lot more quickly.


the butlerian jihad read differently?
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May 7 2024 11:59pm
Quote (Ghot @ May 7 2024 10:09pm)
Yes they do... about as well as a crutch mimics a human leg. :-)


This is about as far along as we've come with free-range (no wires) robots.
Good thing all those boxes were handily located. ^^

I spent years working with and ON scaffolding. Two things...
1. I don't "forget" my tools.
2. I can just "climb" scaffolding, without boxes or ladders.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-e1_QhJ1EhQ




I don't think Michael Jordan or whoever the basketball player du jour is, has anything to worry about. :-)



Now... considering that flip at the end... maybe gymnasts have something to worry about. :D




Was thinking about this as well. Even fully autonomous humanoid bot with AI gonna still be bound to limited battery hardware. I think bot man would run out of juice in the bog in a couple hours, while peasant man can go for at least 16.
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May 8 2024 12:02am
Quote (RedFromWinter @ May 8 2024 01:59am)
Was thinking about this as well. Even fully autonomous humanoid bot with AI gonna still be bound to limited battery hardware. I think bot man would run out of juice in the bog in a couple hours, while peasant man can go for at least 16.



Well, with lunch and a couple coffee breaks. :D




That too. :)

Batteries (power sources), will get better though. But it will take a while.

This post was edited by Ghot on May 8 2024 12:03am
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May 8 2024 07:31am
Quote (duffman316 @ May 7 2024 11:18pm)
the butlerian jihad read differently?


That's what happens in the canon, I swear.

If you think about it, that's what hospitals now do too. If you have 10 COVID patients and 3 respirators, you have to make some tough decisions.
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May 8 2024 07:45am
Quote (RedFromWinter @ May 7 2024 02:39pm)
Around here, most cars are rust buckets or hiding major rust :) The second thought sounds nice as well, just enough automated maintenance to get out of manufacturer warranty :)

AI not too concerning for laborer jobs.


the automation industry is most focused on laborer jobs, its just a slightly different category than mechanic work. but as always i bring up the point of labor displacement, when millions of one kind of laborer are removed from the workforce they have to go somewhere. it was fine and dandy for baseball seamers to walk across the street to a textile factory, but that's not 2024 reality.

i dont mean this as a personal attack, because its corporate america's #1 secret, but a lack of fear of AI on the job market is naïve. and that mentality s what will dog walk us into an economic crisis we're not prepared for. we're heading towards another great depression and no one want to act when we still have time, but hey thats america.

Quote (Santara @ May 7 2024 04:45pm)
I've worked at new car dealers since the 90s. 75% of the repair orders generated might be basic stuff, but it's performed by 10% of the labor expended. Most of the work performed is "check engine light is on, please diagnose, perform recall XXX, replace brakes, check oil leak" and the like. Even air filter and bulb replacements aren't going to happen without some kind of Will Smith iRobot. What happens when you get a rotate job with lug nuts with swollen caps?


we're getting deep in the weeds if i feel the need to nitpick on dealership vs standard service shops. but ill say that will smith robot is a lot closer to the american labor market today than most people think. again teslas can drive you from sea to shining sea, the tech is basically there. it just comes down to cost vs benifit now. and that dynamic changes monthly.
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May 8 2024 08:17am
Quote (thesnipa @ May 8 2024 09:45am)
the automation industry is most focused on laborer jobs, its just a slightly different category than mechanic work. but as always i bring up the point of labor displacement, when millions of one kind of laborer are removed from the workforce they have to go somewhere. it was fine and dandy for baseball seamers to walk across the street to a textile factory, but that's not 2024 reality.

i dont mean this as a personal attack, because its corporate america's #1 secret, but a lack of fear of AI on the job market is naïve. and that mentality s what will dog walk us into an economic crisis we're not prepared for. we're heading towards another great depression and no one want to act when we still have time, but hey thats america.


If truckers/drivers are replaced and we see a 9%+ unemployment rate, some major ugly changes might happen.

The unemployment rate is quite low right now, so it might be the frog boiling until then.
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May 8 2024 09:56am
Quote (EndlessSky @ May 8 2024 08:17am)
If truckers/drivers are replaced and we see a 9%+ unemployment rate, some major ugly changes might happen.

The unemployment rate is quite low right now, so it might be the frog boiling until then.


the biggest issue is the slosh areas people can return to work for short to medium term if their jobs are lost to automation are being automated quickly. fast food, service industry, retail (a declining sector anyways), etc.

so like for that example truck drivers wont be able to find other work, even at a massive pay cut.

once agriculture fully implements fruit pickers we'll have millions of illegal citizens clamoring for social services, many already are due to regulations that put them out of a job while undocumented.

the packaging industry already runs at 25-50% of the employment they did 15 years ago, they're striving for 1-10%. any many of the risers in the industry are already nearly fully automated (amazon being the biggest) while the fallers in the industry are the most behind, and will fall further because of that. they cant invest as they lose market share in a losing battle with online retailer giants.
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May 9 2024 01:24am
Quote (thesnipa @ May 8 2024 08:45am)
the automation industry is most focused on laborer jobs, its just a slightly different category than mechanic work. but as always i bring up the point of labor displacement, when millions of one kind of laborer are removed from the workforce they have to go somewhere. it was fine and dandy for baseball seamers to walk across the street to a textile factory, but that's not 2024 reality.

i dont mean this as a personal attack, because its corporate america's #1 secret, but a lack of fear of AI on the job market is naïve. and that mentality s what will dog walk us into an economic crisis we're not prepared for. we're heading towards another great depression and no one want to act when we still have time, but hey thats america.
.


I work with AI tech, LLM, NN, LP techniques so I have enough understanding to be not be naively afraid or fear mongering with it.
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