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Jan 29 2024 04:02pm
Quote (Goomshill @ Jan 29 2024 09:34am)

Yeah the whole idea of trying to play the Iranians and KSA against each other definitely hasn't worked, and Obama's Iran Deal swirled around the bowl and flushed its way down with counterproductive effect.
The question has to be what the endgame is. Iran will be a nuclear state whether or not they're still empowered by oil sales. Does the world look better if they are destabilized by invasion or destabilized by economic collapse in some miraculous post-oil world?
There's plenty to be gained by ratcheting down the hostilities and seeking peaceful coexistence and hooking Iran back into the global economy, same as should be done with Russia and North Korea. Neoliberals are so indignant at the prospect of a peaceful world they'd purposefully build up a pressure bomb out of a nuclear state and leave it to future generations to explode. If Trump takes a second term and flies to Tehran like Nixon in China we'll know the mideast actually has a chance, and maybe they won't even lop his head off


How did rapprochement with China work out in the long run, though? Peaceful coexistence might well be impossible. I will settle for a foreign policy that unapologetically pursues American interests.
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Jan 29 2024 09:00pm
Quote (bogie160 @ Jan 29 2024 04:02pm)
How did rapprochement with China work out in the long run, though? Peaceful coexistence might well be impossible. I will settle for a foreign policy that unapologetically pursues American interests.


I'd say it worked out pretty well. Instead of a world where China's population boom turned it into a hostile superpower in a nuclear military alliance with Russia, opposing America, it became the backbone of our economy and all our cheap manufacturing and a passive world power that seeks dominance in a peaceful world order instead of threatening nuclear annihilation. Doesn't take much imagination to envision a world where American interests weren't served as well. I mean, what's China's biggest fear right now? Its not being invaded by Joe Biden, its their population aging.
This is actually an irony of neoliberalism in geopolitics. When it comes to outsourcing or spycraft or tariffs they want to argue that free trade is a positive sum game and we're served by cooperating with China, but they're constantly willing to escalate tensions and use military threats which provoke reciprocal escalation and destabilize the world. We saw it with Hillary Clinton pushing Obama to send warships right off the coast of Bejing. If we could go another 80 years without a world war but still manage to win the peace by economic competition that would serve our interests, but even if we're losing the peace its better than the fallout timeline



Quote (Black XistenZ @ Jan 29 2024 10:53am)
There are still independent courts and a free press standing in the way, things you don't have in Iran. And as far as I know, the Guardian Council in Iran will bar all non-conformist candidates with any kind of name recognition. And again: in the US, the vast majority of power is subject to elections while all the true power in Iran isn't.

Sure, no real country will ever score a 100/100 on the theoretical democracy-scale, but the US, for all its flaws, still scores magnitudes higher than Iran or Russia. Your propensity for defending authoritarian regimes and dictatorships is irritating.

Who knows, Iran hasn't had free and fair elections in 45 years, nor is there free opinion polling. What we do know is that there is civil unrest every couple of years which the regime quells with naked violence. The will of the more liberal- and secular-minded parts of Iran's population has barely any democratic representation, the regime only ever makes as few concessions (how much hair may be shown in public etc) as necessary to prevent their anger from boiling over.

All of that is fundamentally different from the liberal democracies of the West, where there are institutionalized minority rights, the political opposition gets its fair share of power and governments can be voted out of office.

A world in which Putin, Xi and the Mullahs are given free reign will not be a peaceful world. :rolleyes: Nor will the world of the neocons in which the US desperately tries to maintain global hegemony by waging wars around the globe. The neocon path being wrong doesn't imply that the correct way forward is to go in the diametrically opposed direction and roll over to every dictator.



Again the question is- what's the metric we use to judge their democracy? They're competing directly with a country that's a theocratic monarch with no press or dissidents at all, where palace intrigue usually involves the mass purging and execution of the opposition. And that's our ally. More of an authoritarian dictatorship than any of the others. Iran still has reasonably free local elections even if the guardian council handpicks the presidency, especially in 2021, so they're getting some say in the running of their country.
How does it compare to the west, though? Do we have free and fair elections, do the authorities crush peaceful protests with oppressive force, do regimes outlaw the opposition and try to disqualify candidates from the ballot? Trudeau's freedom convoy, the AfD, January 6th, Trump 2024 and Bernie 2016 all come to mind. If I wanted to listen to the pro-Russian news sources, how would I even go about doing that? They've all been censored. How many journalists have been locked up by America for their reporting in the past few years- including raiding a home in the middle of the night with storm troopers and seizing his confidential source lists. Is it not a fact that there is a prison wing filled almost exclusively with political prisoners, given trumped up sentences by DC courts?

We're out here being the first to throw stones. If we're judging Iran by the standards of a middle eastern democracy in the Arab/Persian world then its a shining beacon of freedom and sovereign self-determination. If we're judging Iran by western ideals and our founding father's concept of a liberal republic, then we best look to our own sins.
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Jan 30 2024 06:27am
OK pard, it's time to play armchair general. What do you think the targets will be? I think it'll be mostly soft targeting irgc hubs in syria/iraq but who knows? Maybe genocidal Joe will attack Iran directly.

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Jan 30 2024 08:41am
Quote (zorzin @ Jan 30 2024 12:27pm)
OK pard, it's time to play armchair general. What do you think the targets will be? I think it'll be mostly soft targeting irgc hubs in syria/iraq but who knows? Maybe genocidal Joe will attack Iran directly.

https://i.postimg.cc/Xvk1t3b5/1706570348573931.png


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Jan 30 2024 10:05am
Quote (zorzin @ 30 Jan 2024 06:27)
OK pard, it's time to play armchair general. What do you think the targets will be? I think it'll be mostly soft targeting irgc hubs in syria/iraq but who knows? Maybe genocidal Joe will attack Iran directly.

https://i.postimg.cc/Xvk1t3b5/1706570348573931.png


I can't find the exact video but it's from a US General or diplomat who bluntly said, "Pretty soon we'll be partying in Tehran" or something along those lines and the crowd erupted with applause.

After 9/11 everyone knows the famous "7 countries that have to fall in the Middle East" and Syria/Iran were the last two mentioned.

I don't see America launching a full scale invasion on Iran but I don't think it's off the table.

Doubt Russia would give full aid to Iran with what's going on in Ukraine. Doubt China would give full aid if their true ambition is to take Taiwan.

This is classic military stratagem by the US Military per usual. Keep WW3 in the Middle East and don't allow "ground troops" to ever touch American soil(mistake if they did).

Even with all the espionage and infilitration of the US by China/Russia in a war time scenario the NSA/FBI/CIA will tell US troops exactly which Chinese/Saudi farmland is being used as a staging ground for "attacks within the US".

This is the classic "make them feel at home" until you drop a bomb on them. Imagine being one of the "Chinese agents/Saudi/Russian" and thinking "hehe they don't know were here!!!". Exactly what they want you to think.
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Jan 30 2024 11:21am
Quote (SwamiVivekananda @ Jan 30 2024 04:05pm)
I can't find the exact video but it's from a US General or diplomat who bluntly said, "Pretty soon we'll be partying in Tehran" or something along those lines and the crowd erupted with applause.

After 9/11 everyone knows the famous "7 countries that have to fall in the Middle East" and Syria/Iran were the last two mentioned.

I don't see America launching a full scale invasion on Iran but I don't think it's off the table.

Doubt Russia would give full aid to Iran with what's going on in Ukraine. Doubt China would give full aid if their true ambition is to take Taiwan.

This is classic military stratagem by the US Military per usual. Keep WW3 in the Middle East and don't allow "ground troops" to ever touch American soil(mistake if they did).

Even with all the espionage and infilitration of the US by China/Russia in a war time scenario the NSA/FBI/CIA will tell US troops exactly which Chinese/Saudi farmland is being used as a staging ground for "attacks within the US".

This is the classic "make them feel at home" until you drop a bomb on them. Imagine being one of the "Chinese agents/Saudi/Russian" and thinking "hehe they don't know were here!!!". Exactly what they want you to think.


A full scale invasion of Iran is 100% not on the table.
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Jan 30 2024 04:03pm
Live and let live. Think I once seen that tattooed on some basic white girl but applies perfectively to geopolitics.

We've rehashed this a million times but the US does not need to control every region of earth and shouldn't try to bludgeon a regional power (in that region or any other region we don't have borders) that's ascending just because it's ascending.

This post was edited by ofthevoid on Jan 30 2024 04:06pm
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Jan 30 2024 05:19pm
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Jan 30 2024 07:04pm
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Jan 30 2024 09:10pm
Quote (ofthevoid @ 30 Jan 2024 23:03)
Live and let live. Think I once seen that tattooed on some basic white girl but applies perfectively to geopolitics.

We've rehashed this a million times but the US does not need to control every region of earth and shouldn't try to bludgeon a regional power (in that region or any other region we don't have borders) that's ascending just because it's ascending.


In case you missed it: action against Iran isn't discussed because they're an ascending regional power which refuses to bow to us - it's discussed because Iran has been setting the whole Middle East ablaze via its proxies for over a decade, be it in Syria, Iraq or Yemen. And because they continue to literally call for the genocide of our most important ally (and the only democracy) in the entire region. And because they've now started directly attacking US bases as well as taking aim at international shipping routes which are crucial for the global economy.


Pretty much everyone is in agreement that a full-scale invasion with boots on the ground would be a horrible idea, but some kind of robust response has become necessary. They're basically begging to get the stick...
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