https://www.politico.com/news/2022/08/26/read-the-unsealed-redacted-mar-a-lago-affidavit-00053905If you go to page 3 and look at the
Statutory Authority and Definitions, you can see definitions for the content (HUMINT, NOFORN, ORCON, etc.) that he handed over to the FBI (documented on page 17). To me, the HUMINT and ORCON designations were the most dangerous documents that he had and any unauthorized person in possession of them would be looking at some serious consequences. However, given that he's a former President, the DOJ tried to keep this quiet and treat him and his lawyers with the utmost respect. Had he handed over all the documents, I think the DOJ would have looked the other way and I think a lot of people would have come to the same conclusion.
Alas, it turns out that he did NOT turn over all the documents and his lawyers lied about it. The FBI had an informant and knew Trump possessed additional highly sensivite documents. If you look at pages 6 and 7 of the warrant/receipt you can see what was collected (look for TS/SCI designations)
https://www.npr.org/2022/08/12/1117151056/fbi-collected-multiple-sets-of-classified-documents-from-trumps-mar-a-lago-homeBased on the evidence picture that was released a day or two ago, we see a HCS-P/SI/TK designation which means the document contained information on human sources, communications intel, AND satellite surveillance.
At the end of the day, he possessed hundreds of documents that have incredible implications to our national security (which is why the classification status isn't relevant since the statute predates the classification system), he was incredibly reckless about storing them (they were mixed with unrelated documents/mementos and were stored insecurely), and then his team lied to the FBI about it. It's such a straightforward case that I don't see any way around it. He will be indicted some time after the midterms.
The reports I've read seem to be saying that the FBI (via leaks) is confident in a charge of obstruction, not a charge on any other the other things you listed here. Is that true, and if so, why is that?
Getting a charge to stick based on obstruction, but not on an underlying offense, would be disastrous for a DoJ that is already mired in scandal.