I can confirm I was also raped by those two men that night, whichever night it was and whichever men they were, even if they're both claiming to be the same person in the story- especially if they are.

I can confirm they destroyed your ass

I want to know how one "sexually" shoves some one. Is this like a new thing? How exactly does one do this? Push on a boob or something?

Ive explained it before: if Kav withdraws and they go with a new nominee, the timing to even get him/her through before the end of the lame duck session is already quite challenging. every further week by which they delay a decision on whether to ram Kavanaugh through or to abandon him is increasing the risk that they dont get anyone confirmed before the newly elected senators are sworn in. and if this happens, betting markets have them at a risk of around 30% of having lost the senate, so that they would have fumbled their golden opportunity at a reliably conservative majority on the supreme court. a conservative majority which, given the age structure of the current SCOTUS judges, could persist for decades, even if a democrat wins the WH in 2020.

say the risk of not getting the confirmation of Kavs replacement through before the new senate convenes is 15% right now, and that there's a 30% chance for democrats to take the senate. then the risk of them blowing the golden opportunity is 0.15*0.3 = 0.045 = 4.5%. an acceptable risk.
but say they wait until the end of october before they pull the plug from Kavanaugh and go with someone else - so that the risk of not getting the new nominee through increases to 50%. in that case, the risk of blowing it increases accordingly to 15% (0.5*0.3 = 0.15), which might not be acceptable anymore, given that we're talking about the risk of a huuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuge loss.

lets take poker analogy: say you're having a completed flush after the turn, but your opponent has a full house draw on the river. normally, you'd be happy to play this hand. but would you bet your life savings on it? (odds that he hits his full house are 14.9%)

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this brings me back to the idea of an fbi probe: such a probe would have delayed things too much. I assume it would have taken at the very least 3 weeks for such a probe to come to any conclusion, and perhaps substantially longer. given the expected (i.e. probability-weighted) cost every week of delay is causing them in this particular case, the expected/probability-weighted loss of allowing such a delay by launching an fbi probe would have been far greater than the calculable political loss they suffered from nipping it in the bud.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Sep 26 2018 09:42pm

now correct me if I'm wrong, but new senators aren't actually sworn in until january in the next congress. I've been remarking since Kennedy resigned that there was always the very awkward possibility that the seat is left open after the midterms, and the democrats win the senate, but the republicans confirm a nominee during their interim session. I'm not 100% on that, but I think its a real possibility

I already posted how the SC seat for a new judge works.

Short version, he can join the SC anytime after Oct 1st. But he can't participate in any judgements for cases started before he is seated.

An FBI probe would have been directed by the Trump White House. I saw estimates that it could take 3-4 days to interview the parties involved and come to a conclusion. For reference, the Anita Hill FBI investigation lasted 2 days.

Secondly, I don't think the GOP are in any real risk of losing this seat. Even if they don't confirm Kavanaugh, and even if they lose the Senate, both of which I think are unlikely, I think they will still ram through a nominee in the lame-duck session during McConnell's dying gasp as majority leader. Terrible politics, but they'd keep the seat.



That's correct, and it's a real possibility. I think there's a greater chance of the GOP holding onto the Senate but still using the lame-duck session to confirm a justice, but the situation you've described is a real possibility.

Yes this was my understanding, they have until nearly january, but they want to get him in by the start of this session. But with the caveat that its possible for the supreme court to simply rehear oral arguments that someone missed, which is what they did for Gorsuch

I don't think the SJC is gonna wait till Nov 6th anyways. Right now it looks like they will vote on Kav on Oct 4th.

/e If they do, then the only things he won't be able to participate in are those issues started before Oct 4th.

This post was edited by Ghot on Sep 26 2018 09:53pm

sure, thats what the talk about "confirmation in the lame duck session" is referring to. this is a solid plan B in case the republicans hold the senate.

the issue with this, though, is that it has horrible optics when there was a blue wave so strong that the Dems take the Senate despite an abysmal map, and the GOP just shits on this recently-expressed will of the american people by confirming a conservative supreme court judge with the votes of ousted senators.

at the end of the day, the power of the Supreme Court is derived in large parts from tradition, institutions and respect. if a judge confirmed to the court in the way described above later turns out to be the decisive vote in 5-4 decisions on RvW, striking down the ACA or affirming Trump's travel ban, it casts a huge shadow on all those SCOTUS decisions. it would be a nuke to the institutional authority of the supreme court, and partisan animosity would explode. with the politicization of the lower courts, the relative neutrality and the high esteem of the supreme court makes it one of the anchors that are keeping the current legal system together, and I dare to say, its one of the few things keeping the hyperpolarized society together.

a conservative majority on the supreme court which only came to be because ousted senators were shitting on the expressed will of the voters would destroy the court's neutrality and deal a lethal blow to its legitimacy. such a move could have catastrophic and cascading long-term effects.