Quote (Goomshill @ 26 Sep 2018 20:52)
I just don't see how republicans can confirm Kavanaugh under this media cloud. They know they risk losing votes by sticking up for him in the face of apocalyptic allegations. They know they risk votes by a base rebellion if they lose a scotus seat. The ground we're covering might be new, but the math is simple: They need to either lift the cloud or find a third way out. Which is, delay. Worm their way into something. Announce the FBI investigation, see if they can redo Kavanaugh in a week and have him either skip 1 session or redo oral arguments. Or hell, do some kind of insane gambit with Amy Bennett in the fastest confirmation process ever. The senate has the power to modify their procedures almost at will, they could ram her through in a single sitting if they went thermo-nuclear.
I've been saying for over a week that the GOP should have launched an investigation into the first allegation. Makes them look like they are trying, and since the allegation was so long ago, it will likely be a nothingburger.
The fact they haven't launched an investigation yet is either bad politics or raises my suspicion that they are afraid there is more to the allegation than they are letting on. Instead, they kept trying to force the vote through, and now the situation has spun out of control. Hindsight is 20/20 and all, but with the available information at the time, I think it was a bad call.
If they're going to confirm Amy Coney Barrett or another justice with the 116th Senate, they are likely going to have to do it in the lame-duck session, which is also a bad look.
If they want to confirm someone else before the midterms, it will be difficult and risky. It typically takes at least 40 days to confirm a justice. They could speed it up and get that down to maybe 3 weeks...but it would be difficult and also be a bad look. Plus, a lot of these GOP Senators want some time to campaign. And if even a single big issue comes up with that pick, now it's horrible optics right before the midterms.
I'm still feeling like they will find a way to confirm Kavanaugh. But if they don't, my second best guess is that they confirm someone else in the lame-duck session. Not a great look, but they will likely hold onto the Senate, so it won't be too awful. Either way, this is a gigantic political L for the GOP, whether it's fair or not.