its all such uncharted territory. I'm at a loss to make predictions. What's supposed to happen if tomorrow Ford testifies and it actually sounds credible and doesn't implode, but Julie Sputnik goes down in flames and stinks up the media narrative
How is there supposed to be any nuance if one accusation is true and one is false and one is salacious and unknown one way or the other?

It also had to do with her being selfish and you enabling it even now.

oh look they’re getting inpatient

I disagree on this.

I dont care

Keep spewing anecdotal evidence too

You are the one that has no idea, science is on my side of this debate.

If Ford testifies tomorrow and sounds credible, Kavanaugh won't be confirmed as the next SCOTUS Justice.

If Ford testifies tomorrow and it's more or less as vague as the initial allegation, then it does matter how these second and third allegations turn out. This is the most likely (and murkiest) path.

I'm right with you, I don't know where all of this is going to end up. My gut instinct is that Kavanaugh is confirmed in a 51-50 Pence tiebreaker.

The more I think about it, the more I think that it all rides on tomorrow's testimony. Goes good or meh for Kavanaugh, confirmed. Bad, he's out. Looks like McConnell is going to hold the vote pretty soon after.

You have... yet to provide any evidence. Ill apologize for going too far about your gf but you shouldnt bring her up as a political bludgeon either.

Current studies show as many as 60% of female sexual harassment claims are false depending on the area. Colleges are most prevalent.

Past trauma does increase the prevalence of future criminality, but only weakly. The person makes their own choice as it says in my sig. Higher IQ individuals have a better chance to break the cycle of violence.

I just don't see how republicans can confirm Kavanaugh under this media cloud. They know they risk losing votes by sticking up for him in the face of apocalyptic allegations. They know they risk votes by a base rebellion if they lose a scotus seat. The ground we're covering might be new, but the math is simple: They need to either lift the cloud or find a third way out. Which is, delay. Worm their way into something. Announce the FBI investigation, see if they can redo Kavanaugh in a week and have him either skip 1 session or redo oral arguments. Or hell, do some kind of insane gambit with Amy Bennett in the fastest confirmation process ever. The senate has the power to modify their procedures almost at will, they could ram her through in a single sitting if they went thermo-nuclear.



Having studied criminology years and years ago, I can say with certainty that all rape statistics are garbage and none of them can be trusted, not numbers on rapes and not numbers of false allegations
That was my one takeaway from that garbage course. But rape statistics can't even agree on orders of magnitude. The amount of false reports, underreports, unproven reports, withdrawn reports, etc etc- its a shitfuck
We can't even decide on a clear definition of rape, and unlike property or violent crimes there is simply no objective damage to identify.

Any time you guys hear me raging about statisticians on any subject, know it all traces back to studying rape statistics. The NCVS and UCR are so fucking garbage. Cold calling women and asking them if a black man has ever raped them, turns out it doesn't work. They had years in which 0 black women reported being raped by white men in a population of 325 million. And I'm sure at least someone somewhere has

This post was edited by Goomshill on Sep 26 2018 07:56pm