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Jun 1 2018 05:07pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Jun 1 2018 05:00pm)
I'd add a fourth point: a high price pressure on domestic firms is spurring technological progress and an increased efficiency.

if american car manufacturers can get super-cheap chinese steel because the chinese pay fuckall wages and have no restraint in polluting their environment, then there is little incentive to invest into D&R on how to make american steel production more efficient.

pre-euro germany is an example of this phenomenom: since the DM was constantly appreciating against almost any other currency in the world, germany was under constant price pressure and had to constantly innovate to stay competitive. switzerland is another example for this effect.
nowadays, the euro, which is undervalued for germany's economy, is spurring our exports on its own and our companies and politics have become complacent, which will bite them/us germans in the ass in the next 10-20 years.
-----

about your second point: automation is a topic of its own. yes, we will run into huge problems eventually without some sort of machine tax. reshipping jobs from overseas back to the domestic market is often used as an opportunity for a wave of automation and thus job loss, yes. but this effect is not an issue originating from/caused by tariffs - it's our indifference towards outsourcing and our inaction on automation coming back to bite us in the ass.


i'm a bit confused. you are saying, i believe, that increased prices have a good effect of spurring efficiency R&D. I agree. Then you say that it's bad that we didn't take automation more seriously. These are contradictory. this increased efficiency is gained by automation. this is literally increasing the problem, or even in the most optimistic view not helping the problem.

steel costs have another factor that no one seems to know about, quality of steel vs. tolerances needed. In the US we don't really make shitty steel. That makes it seem like we'll get better quality products. But even with a tariff people would rather buy cheap chinese steel to make cheap products. it creates a domestic price increase on all cheap steel, which really can't be gotten here, because our manfucturers are more advanced and can't really get cheap enough to match the low price. in that example firms are just straight paying the tariff, and it's doing nothing for domestic production. some do pay the tariff, if the price is right. but tbh there should only be tariffs on high quality steel, bearing quality steel, spring steel, stainless, etc. plain cold rolled mild steel doesn't need to be strong, and on those products we just pay more.
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Jun 1 2018 05:14pm
Quote (thesnipa @ 2 Jun 2018 01:07)
i'm a bit confused. you are saying, i believe, that increased prices have a good effect of spurring efficiency R&D. I agree. Then you say that it's bad that we didn't take automation more seriously. These are contradictory. this increased efficiency is gained by automation. this is literally increasing the problem, or even in the most optimistic view not helping the problem.



producing more stuff cheaper via automation is a good thing to start with. it does become problematic, however, when it leads to mass unemployment and to the rich reaping all the benefits of this increased efficiency.

so what I'm saying is that we should be glad about more jobs being done by machines, but that we also should find some sensible taxation scheme for machine labor.
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Jun 1 2018 05:15pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Jun 1 2018 05:14pm)
producing more stuff cheaper via automation is a good thing to start with. it does become problematic, however, when it leads to mass unemployment and to the rich reaping all the benefits of this increased efficiency.

so what I'm saying is that we should be glad about more jobs being done by machines, but that we also should find some sensible taxation scheme for machine labor.


ok i understand u now, and agree.

the other factor to consider is that many steel making firms dont even have to hire more people, they can increase production without that. some increases in hours but steel has been under producing for years with the employee pool they had. now they're just being more efficient. so we're all paying a higher cost for less payoff, in steel specifically
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Jun 1 2018 06:18pm
I don't think the neo-luddite sentiment is on the money, its a bit more nuanced. The steel industry in Germany only employs 87,000 people total, and they produce about 3% of total world production. The US has 187,500 steel workers. China employs 12+ million people to produce 50% of the world's production, about 8x the manpower per short ton. Heck, in Austria they produce 500,000 tons of steel a year with 14 people at a single mill. Oxygen steel smelting is insanely efficient in manpower. But the competition isn't from automation right now, the competition is from dirt cheap labor in China, from a government who subsidizes steel production far exceeding demand, dumping it into SEA, dumping it into western markets, building ghost towns filled with empty skyscrapers around their country.
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Jun 1 2018 07:16pm


U.S. isolated at G7 meeting as tariffs prompt retaliation

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade/us-isolated-at-g7-meeting-as-tariffs-prompt-retaliation-idUSKCN1IX478

Officials at the G7 meeting said the tariffs made it more difficult for the group to work together to confront China’s trade practices, especially when Beijing, like most G7 members, supports the current World Trade Organization-based trade rules and the United States is seeking go around them. [/URL]


IMO, the fact that China supports the current World Trade Organization-based trade rules, should be a huge, flashing, red light warning to the "Group of Seven" (G7).


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Jun 1 2018 07:28pm
Quote (Ghot @ 2 Jun 2018 03:16)
U.S. isolated at G7 meeting as tariffs prompt retaliation

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade/us-isolated-at-g7-meeting-as-tariffs-prompt-retaliation-idUSKCN1IX478

Officials at the G7 meeting said the tariffs made it more difficult for the group to work together to confront China’s trade practices, especially when Beijing, like most G7 members, supports the current World Trade Organization-based trade rules and the United States is seeking go around them. [/URL]


IMO, the fact that China supports the current World Trade Organization-based trade rules, should be a huge, flashing, red light warning to the "Group of Seven" (G7).


lol, china is still far more protectionist than trump would even dare dream of.

the country that is using tons of subsidies to flood the world with their artificially cheap products, the country that still forces a majority equity for them whenever a foreigner wants to invest over there, is trying to play the champion of free trade and of the WTO rules.

ridiculous, but the liberal press will of course buy into it to score another point on trump.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Jun 1 2018 07:28pm
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Jun 1 2018 07:28pm
Quote (Ghot @ Jun 1 2018 08:16pm)
U.S. isolated at G7 meeting as tariffs prompt retaliation

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade/us-isolated-at-g7-meeting-as-tariffs-prompt-retaliation-idUSKCN1IX478

Officials at the G7 meeting said the tariffs made it more difficult for the group to work together to confront China’s trade practices, especially when Beijing, like most G7 members, supports the current World Trade Organization-based trade rules and the United States is seeking go around them. [/URL]


IMO, the fact that China supports the current World Trade Organization-based trade rules, should be a huge, flashing, red light warning to the "Group of Seven" (G7).


well trump is going out of his way to help the chinese so we know china is perfectly good
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Jun 1 2018 07:55pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Jun 1 2018 09:28pm)
lol, china is still far more protectionist than trump would even dare dream of.

the country that is using tons of subsidies to flood the world with their artificially cheap products, the country that still forces a majority equity for them whenever a foreigner wants to invest over there, is trying to play the champion of free trade and of the WTO rules.
ridiculous, but the liberal press will of course buy into it to score another point on trump.








I think the G7 members are already losing. It should be... all of us against them, while we still have the chance.



EU pop. 508 million
North Amer. pop. 579 million

...that's 1.08 billion

China pop. 1.379 billion


The dragon is seriously awake. ^^


/e We still out gun them, but that's about it.

This post was edited by Ghot on Jun 1 2018 08:01pm
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Jun 1 2018 08:10pm
Tariffs MIGHT not be the optimum solution, but we all need to get it in gear. Look at how fast the country with the world's largest population, is moving in the global economy.







/e Full size... http://i.imgur.com/0KqnPWn.gifv

This post was edited by Ghot on Jun 1 2018 08:10pm
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Jun 1 2018 08:18pm
Quote (Ghot @ 2 Jun 2018 04:10)
Tariffs MIGHT not be the optimum solution, but we all need to get it in gear. Look at how fast the country with the world's largest population, is moving in the global economy.



http://i.imgur.com/0KqnPWn.mp4



/e Full size... http://i.imgur.com/0KqnPWn.gifv


late 80s japan was a behemoth. and look how that turned out.

not directly comparable to china though, of course not. japan with a population of sub-130m always had a rather low ceiling. china, on the other hand... the sky is the limit for them. but the example of japans economic decline on the world stage shows that whoever is looking unstoppable one moment can be on the decline just a few years later if there are severe enough structural problems. and china certainly has those as well, they have huge overcapacities, they have a huge debt, their banking sector is all sorts of messed up, their political leadership is oppressing competition and innovation.

the median outcome is certainly that china will overtake the U.S. as the largest economy and political force on the planet during the next decades, but that the gap remains somewhat close. but neither a decade of stagnation after the burst of a financial sector bubble nor china taking over the entire world by 2050 would really surprise me.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Jun 1 2018 08:18pm
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